Monster,

First I would like to say Sad Ken hasn't joined the ranks of the commercial tipsters. The web site is purely to promote his books. He how publishes them himself and it is his only form of advertising his product. He is a member of a private forum I belong to and I have to say he is a very genuine helpful chap. He is far from being a big punter but as he often post pre race I can see his method(s) work.

I hope you will be puting up some of your ratings when the turf starts. I don't back on the a/w but would always be interested in seeing rattings for the turf. I can see you are a member of F/Stats but can't find the forum where you show your ratings. Hope all is well with you and yours.

SP,

I can only admire you in your quest to work alone, I find it can be very time consuming and at times boring. I found working alone it is to easy to keep making the same mistakes and/or reading or missing the same things over and over again. Yes VDW forums can be a pain but that usually is down to a few who want to top boy. They think they are the only ones who know how it works and theirs is the way the light, and the rest are way of. In saying that there are some very helpful, knowledgeable folk who go out of their way to talk through ideas and share. I still think the best way forward in on a general racing forum as the doubters often come up with sensible questions/suggestions. I was disappointed in TRF though.

Andy,

Yes the RFU, well the editor of the forum seems to take great delight in slagging VDW off. Have to say in general it was the same with TRF. What they don't seem to understand is there is far more to it than just adding up numbers. See above for my thoughts on Sad Ken. I think basically his approach is sound its just I don't think he goes far enough. I want to nail a race down to one bet even if it is a place only bet. SK is more than happy to back three at times. Anyone that adapts the basic VDW idea of finding the class horse will never go to far wrong as long as they remember at all times to take the conditions into account. Course, going, etc. Personally I don't think enough thought goes into the course configuration(s), and winning a weak race doesn't prove a horse acts on the course.

Be Lucky

Hi Mtoto

Good to here from you. Regarding the other Forum you need to register if you are not already and my Last ratings were published on the Betting Action part of the Forum. This is the thread for the last selection posted. http://www.flatstats.co.uk/ppp/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=9774

I have not published anymore Ratings since that date, as I thought that the 13 examples pre race examples were enough for members to get the general idea behind the ratings.

I have continued to email each night an update of the full data base of ratings to a member of that Forum for his personal use and will continue to do so.

The example below is from a race that was run tonight and is the ideal race shape.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p3s9QcfHzuSVvfXE_IzJ3fg

I remember Sad Ken from the Old Forum and I'm glad that he is doing Ok still. The last I heard was that he was not betting at all, but continuing to work on his method of VDW. I guess we are all coming from the same angle "Find a racehorse that is competing against Donkey's"

Good Luck

Monster

Hi All
Just got in from ferrying my wife about, so a bit late now.
Just one thing to say at the moment and that is the last two furlongs of a race needs to be discussed in detail. Not just what a horse does, but what it does it against and how it does it. In my humble opinion a very serious subject.
sp

Just an idea on how you may get the best out of Inform ratings in handicaps.

The Following is an example from the 6.50 Wolverhampton 08/03/08

Almaty Express LTO Inform rating 78, Handicap Mark up 8lbs from last run
Multahab LTO Inform rating 82, Handicap Mark up 6lbs From Last Run
Sands Crooner Lto Inform Rating 80, Handicap Mark Down 3lbs From Last Run

My Adjusted Class Ratings for the race are at the Google Doc Link below.


http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p3s9QcfHzuSVifd9Bfj5eKA

Good Luck

Monster

Hi All
On the subject of Sad Ken. I do believe he had a long winning streak years ago which would put him among the best there is. If I remember rightly he used speed figures to arrive at his selections.
sp

Another example of LTO Inform Speed Ratings

Exit Smiling LTO Inform Rating 85 Raised 5lbs in the Handicap
Mia's Boy Inform LTO Rating 80 Raced off the same Handicap mark despite winning LTO
(Winners of Apprentice Handicaps do not carry penalties)

My Class Ratings for the race are at the Google Doc Link

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p3s9QcfHzuSXDw7Ioed1Aaw

Good Luck

Monster

hi motto
your right about course congiguration and the way horses perform differently on different tracks and circumstances, theres been one good book about this but unfortunatley it stopped production a few years back

Hi Andy

If its the Profile Books by Nomadic Press that you remember, there are services that provide that type of information and more. On the Flat profile information can be very useful for sprinters as they race frequently and go up and down the handicap like a yo-yo.

Some can be real money spinners on their day with the right conditions. Catch The Cat is a good example from a couple of years ago.

He won 7 races from 67.

in 5f Handicaps on a straight course with a break of between 8 & 28 days on Gd or Gd/Frm his record was 6 wins from 17 and £101 to a £1 stake.

The profile information is also good for spotting Trainer Trends

I use alerts so that I don't miss out. For instance Michael Jarvis does well with his 10F Plus runners in August and with little extra criteria his record prior to last season was 13/24 54% and last season popped 2 winners from 3 in August 67% ROI 228% (SP)

Owners are also another source for profit

Mr Jaber Abdullah with a little extra criteria back any 2yr Old Filly in a Group Race. Prior to last season his record was 7-15 47%
Last season 2-3 67%

Good Luck

Monster

Andy if its
Davey Towey's Book 'The Solidus' . OUT OF STOCK. Its ISBN is 0-9522552-0-0 if you want to search for it elsewhere.
sp

Hi Monster
Have you got an update on your results to date.
SP

Hi Mtoto
Which site do you belong to.
SP

Hi Spranger


http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p3s9QcfHzuSXUGBh2HlcAbw

My Mentor is a Typical Prescott Handicap runner, stepped up in distance etc.

I did rate some handicaps on Saturday but there was too much conflict for a bet and the top rated duly lost. 3rd Rated Atlantic Story won, 3rd rated Sgt Schultz won and Dudley Docker 9th rated won.



Good Luck

Monster

Hi Monster
Thanks for the reply. very good results.
SP

Sands Crooner, Class horse strikes again.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p3s9QcfHzuSV9BeeE0aN0QA

Check out the Inform figures LTO 80, race before that 80. Next highest rated runner lTO = 73

Sands Crooner also had the Highest Master rating, Average, M+A, Course and Distance.

Now check out the pace as Sands Crooner is a 'Come from behind' type of horse AND WILL NEED PACE. Fracsoft publish pre race pace figures and they had 1 Track Leader, 3 front runners, 1 up with pace and of course Sands Crooner 'Behind'

The Odds were between 5/4 & 7/4 this morning and they drifted to 9/4 in the last 5 mins before be backed in again.

Good Luck

Monster

Hi Monster, well done mate.

Looking at the Fracsoft site and demo, can you tell me what all the columns mean there is no explanation anywhere that I can see, thanks.

Hi Joe

When you click on the Form sheet on the fracsoft site and then go to the 4.45. The first page is the Stats Page and by that title you wil see a Help button click on that and it will explain.

Next click on Ratings and another set of information is available including the Pace Figures. The Pace comments and Scores indicate if it will be a race with plenty of pace. I also use my own Fractional Figures but there Pace Comments and Pace figures are just as good. The Scores were 3.9, 3.6, 3.3 and 3.00 which indicates bags of pace and Sands Crooner was 1.2

There is also a Help button which explains this page. If you click on the Other headings Best Run, weight etc there is a Help Button to explain each category.

Good Luck

Monster

My last VDW contibution for awhile and good luck to you all for the coming Turf season.

VDW stated in systematic Betting "When you really come to terms with things you will find you tread the same path year after year and get to know when and where to strike" He was also of the opinion that the better race horses are lightly raced as 2yr olds.

Finally, he suggested to watch how horses are palced, "If you want to know where the bus is gpoing, ask the driver (Trainer).

What if we combine these factors for a shortlist rich in possibilities.

Recently I mentioned that Sir Mark Prescott does well when stepping his Runners up in distance. Each year he has a batch of 3yr olds who have been lightly raced as 2 yrs old. Look carefully when his 3yr olds are entered in Class 4 or 5 handicaps over 10f or further and are stepping up in distance.

See the Google Link below for his last 50 runners who met this criteria. With a little more study who knows how far you might get with something so simple.


http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p3s9QcfHzuSVDhPHc_BoNWQ

Good Luck

Monster

Hi Monster
Like VDW a break now and again is of no harm.
In the last month like you I have struck well, but now the batton has been handed to flat racing. Come late May it will be time to look seriously at the FLAT. I wish you well and have a nice break. My Bets for the month are as follows;
53 selections
30 winners
17 odds on
15 of which won
1440 points profit overall to 100 points stake unit.
How did you finish up ????

Best regards SP

Hi Spranger

I'm afraid I did not get close to as many bets as you in March. There is a lot to be said for return on high turnover and well done for making your money work for you so hard. I only bet on Flat Racing so please excuse the lack of numbers. (I could never make it as a commercial Tipster, punters would get bored waiting days for a selection)

So far in March I have had 8 bets and 6 won. one winner was Odds ON and the highest winner 11/1

Good Luck

Monster

HI Monster
For those who have VDW's waiting tactics the rewards are great. One of my brothers was saying that VDW has been discussed in a monthly mag he gets. I will find out the name and post it up. The second part of the assessment of VDW is next month.
As my brother will be away for a couple of weeks it looks like the begining of April before I get the mags name.
There was 3 selections today for me but only 1 winner at 11/4 but still a profit was made. My bigest worry at this time of year is many trainers will now give their NH horses an easier time. On the flat its the same story' so a difficult two months ahead, unless you look for early types or trainers who get them ready FTO.
Best Regards
SP