Hi Mtoto
If you send a letter to the Raceform Update Forum you own the Copyright but allows them to print for that publication only.
If you wish to make sure, you can always end each entry on any forum with Copyright Mtoto
There was a guy on the Peach Forum called Bepo who had terminal lung cancer. Do you know if he his still alive.
Good Luck
Monster
Monster,
I'm sorry to say Bepo is no longer with us. He was interesting as even with a very high strike rate he went back and revised his thinking.
Sad Ken has his own web site, and publishes his own books now. Although I did notice he has a link on the Browzers web site I don't think Mr Peach or Seddon are connected with him apart from the link. Ken is a member of the invitation only forum, and have to say some of his ideas are interesting. By nature he is very cautious and just narrows the field down to 3/4 and backs then all e/w. I spend a few happy hours working out the most likely winner from his selections by applying my ratings to them. I can't quite get my head around backing more than one horse in a race, although I do find the place only bet a god send.
Be Lucky
Hi Mtoto
I'm Very sorry to hear about Beppo I enjoyed his contributions and was hoping he would beat the odds.
Good Luck
Monster
I notice this thread is getting quite a few hits. I'm also fairly sure its not because folk want to read about Monster's and my past experiences on other forums.
If by any chance it is in the hope of "learning" something about VDW, I'm happy (as I'm sure is Monster) to talk about our understanding of the subject. That is not to say we'll necessarily agree on some of the basics. I don't think the ability rating as explained in the literature is the method VDW actually used to measure ability. Whatever, the fundamentals of consistent form + ability + capability +, etc. still hold as good today as they did 30 years ago.
Be Lucky
Hi Mtoto
I thought that I would make a contribution to get things going.
This will be old news for Mtoto but for those new to VDW, don't get too bogged down with the Ability and Consistency ratings. VDW gave many different aspects of finding if there is a winner in the race.
The key VDW adivice for me is to ask 'What is the Trainer up to' He suggested getting to know a few Trainers really well.
My last bet was yesterday and the horse was Realism Trained by Fahey
what do I know about Fahey
Fahey does well in Claimers, especially if they are Geldings and dropping in class, with a decent Jockey on board, his strike rate is over 40%
Realism is a 10f horse and had been running over 12f for his last two races. (VDW would suggest to ask yourself why run a horse who likes 10f over 12f)
The Roushayd method looked at how the Trainer brought the horse to the boil.
Fahey used a similar method
In his last race Realism was racing in a much higher class and you need to ask yourself did he show improvenment in this race. In finishing in 9th position you might think no, but it was good performance in this class.
Realism is now dropped into class (4) and back over 10f
Also note that he has won two class 2 races over this Course and distance, so no problems with the course and class of race.
early in the day was available at 4/1
There is a good american article on how a trainer may condition his runner. http://www.americanturf.com/pace/rayarticles.cfm?articleid=19
Good Luck
Monster
Hi Monster and Mtoto, thanks for all the posts.
I always thought that VDW was based on the ability and form ratings and first five or six in the betting?
Isn't what you arer suggesting about Realism just basic form reading? To me Realism didn't have good form or ability ratings, do you ignore these then?
Sorry for so many questions but am interested in VDW. If he called it a method which to mw is like a mechanical system, actual form reading is nothing methodical is it.
Thanks for all your help.
MIKE
Hi Mike
VDW drip fed readers to avoid over load. The Ability and Consistency ratings were introduced to help narrow the field down and most example races were National Hunt. Ability and Consistency were just two of the many sign posts along the path. With regards Falt recognised that other methods may be needed and introduced the Roushayd example. (Can also be applied to NH Racing)
I'm also glad that you mentioned Form. Why do people think that VDW ignored the Form Book. There is a nice quote from VDW in Jock Binghams Book. " If you go into Hospital and they ask for your blood group, tell them its the 'THE FORM BOOK'"
To my mind the best VDW contribution was the little Booklet published by the Old Raceform "Systematic Betting" (I understand he hated the title)
In this Booklet he covers Form and Class.
One example he gave to explain class and form was 'the School's star athlete who appeared invincible would surely surely meet his 'Waterloo' if faced with olympic quality opposition. He goes on to say Logically, the relative merit of form must be equated to the quality (Class) in which it was achieved.
VDW ends by stating when looking at the relative merits of one horse against another, these two elements class and form must be equated along with the other aspects such as distance, going, track, etc.
Whatever the form and class, a long striding galloping horse is almost bound to come unstuck on a sharp track.
Its worth noting that Roushayd was a long striding type. With regards to consistency figures they were 3 4 6 prior to winning. (Roushayd did show a different type of consistency when conditioned by his Trainer and racing over the correct distance, course and class)
With regards Trainers he states
Although not wishing to confuse anyone there is exposed form as understood by most and the less obvious form which, although just as exposed is not seen by the majority. Following trainers would soon aquaint you with this less obvious form.
I'm interested when you say "To me Realism didn't have good form or ability ratings"
Realism came out of a class 190 (VDW Class Ratings) and showed improved form on Speed Figures) It does not matter which LTO figures you use in this example, but as its Ian's site its only fair to examine Ian's.
Last 3 Speed figures 81 76 71
The next highest LTO class rating
Corriolanus (Class 170)
Last 3 Speed Figures 74 41 60
The rest were all coming out of much lower class.
Realism achieved his figure at York as well and was the only runner with a Course Speed figure
As I stated earlier Fahey has a strike rate of over 40% when he prepares as he did for Realism in Claimers.
Good Luck
Monster
Mike.
For me VDW is based on class and form, these are the important aspects of the whole process. Looking at Monster's example (a race I didn't even look at) the first thing that jumps out at me is Realism certainly had both. The consistency rating and betting forecast are just one method VDW used to get into a race. Monster used another method (trainer).
I prefer the more basic approach. I want the horse to be at least in the lowest FIVE for consistency, not overly fussed about the forecast. I stick to the BETTER class races, I think this cuts out trying to second guess trainers. If the prize is big enough, and the horse is capable of winning it will be TRYING. So after rating the runners for ability, what is left is sorting out is can the horse act under these conditions? Here I will say I don't think the ability rating as explained in the books does an accurate job. I think VDW used the class rating as a measure of ability, this is the rating explained in Systematic Betting. Why do I think that? Simply because VDW said Prominent King DIDN'T have a WINNING class rating, but to have an ability rating (the one most use) he had to have won races.
Be Lucky
Hi Monster
I will look at the American article when I get chance. I havnt much time at the moment due to my accounts having to be in by the end of the month.
One of my bets in 2002 was Bolin Eric ( £100 9/1 ) for the ST Ledger. Was you around at that time and if so how did you view the race from your angle?????
sp
Hi Spranger
I was around at the time but did not bet in the race.
Very nice pick by you though. The Great Voltigeur (York) as prep race throws up a few winners and The Gordon stakes (Goodwood) is the other Prep race.
Good Luck
Monster
Hi Monster
One of the reasons I brought up Bollin Eric was that after the St Ledger the horse was raced at slightly shorter distances and was then stepped back up to 2m.
The trainer quotes in the RP can be very useful as was the case with Bollin Eric. Do you use them yourself or do you use other sources???
sp
Hi Mtoto
When you say you stick to the better class races do you prefer non handicap races??
sp
Hi Spranger
yes I do check out the Trainer quotes in the RP. I also set up google alerts for anything to do with Trainers. Attheraces have stable tours which sometimes give clues for the future.
I also have alerts when Trainers have certain entries, i.e. Fahey geldings in claimers who are dropping in class, Prescott handicapers stepping up in distance and so on.
Another aspect is to check why horses are withdrawn, sometimes its because of the going and these might be interesting when they are next raced, as the trainer may have the horse on the boil and not want to waste a run on unsuitable going. http://www.britishhorseracing.com/goracing/racing/nonrunners/default.asp
Good Luck
Monster
SP,
I now look at any race that is worth winning, the sort of races trainers plan for. For a long time I stuck to hcps only. I mistakenly thought the prices would be too tight in most none hcps. I changed that a few years ago and I'm glad I did. Some of my best bets have been in none hcps. Hardy Eustace for his first champion hurdle springs to mind, Warrsan at 12/1 in a SIX horse race is another.
I very seldom look at any race lower than a class 2. One exception is the very few hcps where the prize money far out weighs the usual class. £20,000 races for 90/95 rated horses.
My main aim is to cut out trying to second guess the trainer. If the prize is big enough I fairly happy that in most cases the horse will be fit and trying. My job is then to see if my figures agree with the trainer's ideas, and that the horse can handle the class and conditions of the race in question.
Be Lucky
Hi,
Someone is interested enough to keep reading this thread although nothing new has been posted for quite awhile. What does slightly surprise me is although they are interested they don't bother to post. Can I ask why? It does seem to be a trend with VDW threads, very few bother to post. I started a VDW thread on TRF to ask a specific question of the members. That too has, died but folk keep logging in to read it, I notice it has 25,000 + hits.
Be Lucky
Hi Mtoto
I think VDW needs a site of its own. At the moment I am concentrating on one small area of VDW. The reason being is I think its a small but very very important part.
VDW is amazing but frustrating when you have to shop around for old books to start you on the path to discover racing history.
I tend to be a maverick who works well as a single entity. I do not like asking for help and im having great fun in the process.
One influential person who was also a maverick has spurred me on and every time I looked at his selections I have found something different.
The part of VDW I have looked at for the past 6 months is to me the key part to his work. The rest of it is secondary at the moment and therefore i have not had put anything up.
Spranger
There is a lot of good discussion here about VDW ratings but using just thye VDW rating figure on Inform Racing is probably the most basic way I know of getting winners.
Top rated (must be a rating of 40 or more and all age races) just yesterday gave:
Dickie Le Davior Won 4/1
Majorca Won 9/2
Charlies Double Won 25/1
Highland Harvest Won 7/4
Marsam Won 15/2
Kalmo Bay Won 8/1
Not a bad day I suppose! I sometimes knock one or two out if recent form is bad but you can find these in minutes here.
Are others trying to complicate matters I wonder?
Good Luck.
Hi Spranger & Mtoto
I have been busy compiling my own Class Ratings and the example (See Google doc Link below for the spreadsheet example) was posted pre race on another forum where I have been posting. So far I have posted nine other examples and 7 top rated have won. One member sugested a useful filter, which was that the top rated should be equal or greater to the race class figure (top right hand header)
In yesterdays example the top rated was also top rated by inform ( I always consult the inform figures)
In addition the top rated inform also had achieved the best figures in both LTO and 2nd LTO columns. http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p3s9QcfHzuSXFRW6kWYj6AA
Good Luck
Monster
Next Race 4.30 Lingfield 15/02/08
Class Ratings at the google.doc link below.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p3s9QcfHzuSW7OPj_anDKUw
Check out the Inform speed ratings.
Good Luck
Monster
Posted today on another forum 3.35 Lingfield
Top Class Rated and ToP LTO Inform Speed Fig
See Google doc Link
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p3s9QcfHzuSUUf6xKEMqhDw
