I understand that its not as easy to backtest system here as on your Flatstats (you can name it I don't mind), but its an evolutionary process and if you saw what we had a year or so ago, you would appreciate the steps that have been made.

I am hopefully going to get the sp's added to all past results, at least back a year or so shortly and am also trying to get some sort of basic backtesting facility started too, but when this will be done I'm not sure.

I appreciate all your posts and hope the ratings at least do the business in the long term, while things hopefully get added to improve the service.

Cheers,

Ian

IAN.........As I said to VC...we have had it too easy for too long.All the base stats are here to check on the site......its justdeciding the best (i.e. most profitable) way to use them..............By the way have you ever looked into your SPEED FIGURES and JUMP RACING.??????

I have tried to make figures for jump racing but whether it is my method of calculating, I just can't get any decent set of figures together what with the time of the races being so long, horses beaten so far and winners eased down a furlong or more before the finish sometimes, so many horses would end up with no rating and I don't think the figures would be worth using.

Obviously other people do them but I would be very dubious about how they do their calculations. Do you know anyone who does them successfully and can make the figures usable?

Well done Vc

Mrs Crossy a system bet ?

anyway if it wasnt i'm happy

cheers

Mikec it was a system bet and a decent price against the hotter fav Aggbag, good winner in a seller

IAN......THE JUMPS........Most "speed" sites seem to come to the same conclusion.Back in the days TOPSPEED made a profit.......it was HURDLE RACES and LONG DISTANCE CHASE RACES...(say 2m 6 f +) that made a profit.And of course BUMPERS.....The moral being that when horses go relativly slowly(CHASES)..the "speed" of the race is less important.I do not know if you factor it in but as you know the RACING POST have a "STANDARD TIME" for each race...and give the result +/- of that.Only when the race was "faster than standard" did the LTO time become really important.

There were 6 qualifiers within the various price bands for the different surfaces today. However only 1 won making a loss of 0.5 points on the day. I have listed all the qualifiers to date from 01 June 06 for ease of reference:-

01/06/06, 3 Robustian(7), 8:55SANDOWN(TR), 15/2, 2ND, -1.00
01/06/06, 10 Taboor(5), 4:30YARMOUTH(TR), 8/1, 1ST, +8.00
02/06/06, 8 Starboard Light(2), 4:25WOLVERHAMPTON(AW), 5/1, UP, -1.00
03/06/06, 6 The Leather Wedge(7), 2:20MUSSELBURGH(TR), 10/1, UP, -1.00
03/06/06, 8 Speedy Sam(12), 6:20SOUTHWELL(AW), 5/2, 1ST, +2.50
03/06/06, 2 Smile For Us(1), 7:50SOUTHWELL(AW), 6/1 UP, -1.00
05/06/06, 3 Border Music(8), 7:30WINDSOR(TR), 15/2, 2ND, -1.00
07/06/06, 5 Mrs Crossy(7), 1:50LINGFIELD(AW), 9/2, 1ST, +4.50
07/06/06, 5 Frisky Talk(1), 3:10NOTTINGHAM(TR), 11/2, UP -1.00
07/06/06, 6 Zamala(13), 5:10NOTTINGHAM(TR), 6/1, UP -1.00
07/06/06, 7 Kamissa(3), 7:56KEMPTON(AW), 7/1, UP -1.00
07/06/06, 4 Imperialistic(5), 8:10RIPON(TR), 8/1, UP -1.00
07/06/06, 1 Illustrious Blue(8), 8:52KEMPTON(AW), 5/1, 3RD -1.00

SUMMARY

W/T; 3/13, 23% SR, PL£1; +5.00, 38% ROI, A/E 1.62

It's funny but this month within the price band of 0 to 5/1 for turf has produced the following stats:-

W/T 12/27, 44% SR, PL£1; +11.49, 46% ROI, A/E 1.87

In previous months this band would not produce any or much profits at all.

I've managed to complete fully integrity checks on all April data, Mid Jan to March integrity check is almost completed and May still requires missing data to be inputted - so it is taking longer than I expected. I want to finish so that I can confirm whether the current rules make any sense.

Vc

Was Obrigado not a selection Unpl 5/1
Highest Master & Rating highest M+A

Cheers

No because it's LTO was 53 days, the rules say 42 days is maximum. I posted that part later on in the thread as I forgot to include it with the main body.

After checking and rechecking ( a few times), I believe that the data I have from Jan 12, 2006 to June 11, 2006 inclusive is correct. Therefore running through the period with various filters, the most profitable set of rules I have come up with is as follows:-

RULES

1. All Non Runners must be excluded and if it was a qualifer then the whole field must be re-assessed to find a new qualfier.

2. Horse must have highest Master Rating (can be shared top);

3. Horse must have had a minimum of 3 Runs;

4. Horse must have the highest rating from the last 3 runs (can be shared);

5. Horse with the Highest Master and Highest Rating from last 3 runs gets selected provided they are equal. [PLEASE NOTE THIS AS VERY IMPORTANT] If there is another qualifier then the one with the highest speed LTO is chosen. If there is still a tie then the one with the highest M+A is chosen. If there is still a tie then no selection (highly unlikely);


All Weather

6A The race distance must be 9.5 furlongs or less;

7A Selections only valid in classes 1-6 inclusive;

8A Selection can only be taken if SP price is between 2/1 to 13/2 inclusive;

9A The maximum LTO is 150 days;

Turf

6B The race distance must be 7.5 furlongs or less;

7B Selections only valid in classes 2-5 inclusive

8B Selection can only be taken if SP price is between 9/2 to 10/1 inclusive;

9B The maximum LTO is 150 days;

PERFORMANCE

W/T; 33/116, 28% SR, +59.17, +51% ROI

Due to the population size (116) and the period being only 5 months, these results must be treated as statistically unsafe. Therefore it is best to wait for more data (200+ qualifiers) and a longer period (minimum 3 years) before adopting the system.

Please note rule 9B should read 21 and NOT 150

I assume Rule 9a stays @ 150 days

Well don VC I don't know how much time all this takes you but it gives us a solid system to work off. Also these price ranges are good too being at least above 2/1. Also I think a lot of Maidens races are good betting for this system but not such good prices.

Circle Of Truth, Didn't We, Nefski Alexanderand Christmas Truce look like bets to me at Folkestone today prices be correct of course. Is this right?

mikec

yes to rule re Aw stays as 150 days.

matty

I have not yet compiled all the data to pick anything for today's racing, will confoirm before the 1st race at Folkestone. On subject of maidens withoiut them the system would not be that great and I'm even looking at only concentrating on Maidens but need to run another query to check each race and each month to see if profitable, I know in last few weeks it certainly has as I've actually bet real money.

Matty

Ishou ld check your selections some are in class 6 Rule 7b

Thanks Mike. I think I'll write the rules down!

There are 2 prequalifers which need to be finally qualified by SP pricing:-

3:15F Didn't We
8:05W Prince Tamino

Bothe prequalifiers won at 7/4 and 9/4 respectively, however were not qualified by the pricing.

I actually took the 1st one because I had another reason to be on. This is how I like to use prequalifiers as they boost confidence to some degree on the same selection using another method/system.

Good one VC, I backed the second one which won quite easily, thanks.

Dare I ask, are there any for today?

Hi VC

I have copies of the tables for about 3 months from last autumn. These are in Word. If they are any use to you in your researches I will happily email them to you.

Cheers