TODAYS SELECTIONS.....2.20 L.....TOP ROYELLE........3.20 L.....BOLLIN DEREK, ...3.50L...RED EVIE, ....4.50 L......SUNDERLAND ECHO, .......2.10 R.......PRETTY MAJESTIC, .......8.20 S......DAYLAMI STAR.

YESTERDAYS RESULTS.......WON 4/11, 2nd 9/4, WON 1/2, L 7/4, L 10/11, L 5/1, ..........R/T......19/50......+9.19 POINTS........TODAYS SELECTIONS........7.10 Be.....ELOQUENT ROSE.....8.10 Be....STEELCUT......9.10 Be.....CARESSED.......2.00 Br....WINNING SPIRIT.......3.10 Br......CHRISTMAS TRUCE.......5.25 Br......TABOOR.........8.50 S......FUTURES DREAM........1.40 Y......HILL SPIRIT.

Dylan

I've identified another price band that would work with your system (however Miadens must be excluded as they lead to large losses) and that is 15/8 to 5/2 SP, the results are:-

1st Quarter; 4/8, 50% SR, +5.00, 63% ROI
Current Quarter; 11/25, 44% SR, +8.63, 35% ROI
Total; 15/33, 45% SR, +13.63, 41% ROI

The 1st Quarter had few qualifiers because of only AW racing being on.

Againnit would be nice to backtest with 3 years or more data to be more qualifiers and therefore less potential innaccuracies.

YESTERDAYS RESULTS.......L 12/1, 3rd 11/4, WON 8/11, 2nd 4/11, 2nd 8/1, N/R, 2nd 6/5, WON 4/1, .....so far..........21/57.....+ 8.92 POINTS..........TODAYS SELECTIONS.............3.35 N.......RIPPLES MAID......4.40 N......RAIN STOPS PLAY....6.15 S....GRAND PRIX.....7.55 S......MASHAAHED.......2.55 Y.....TOKYO JO........4.30 Y....TABOOR.

Come on Dylan give us all the good news! Some good winners today will bump up the profit.

Are you putting any money down yet?

Ian

IAN......RULES IS RULES....No cash till 200 selections.!!!!!......Posting may be erratic at present....computer woes.........YESTERDAYS RESULTS.........L 5/4, WON 11/4, WON 10/11, WON 8/13, 2nd EVENS, WON 8/1.......there was a 103/1 "fourtimer" in there for those who like such things.........R/T............25/63...40%......+ 19.2 POINTS....+31%...............IAN......Another "rule of the game".....no money till system makes at least 30% profit........so this just scrapes in at present.

TODAYS SELECTIONS......6.15 B....LONGQUAN....1.50 C.....ELIZA MAY....5.25 C.....AXIS SHIELD.....4.05 E....SPECIOSA.....5.20 E...SPIRIT OF AROSA.......3.45 W.......WARSAW PACT.......4.25 W......STARBOROUGH LIGHT.

You're the boss Dylan!

Just out of interest, how many selections have you had so far and over what time period has it been?

Also, when you say 30%, does this have to be consistent over a period of time?

Keep it up mate and thanks for your continued postings.

Ian

IAN......These 63 bets have come since I started posting the idea on 15/MAY......so thats 18 days.So I suppose you will get 100 bets per month.So within 2 months I will have the 200 selections I need........if its making 30% or more by then..the wallet comes out.!!!!!

Dylan

Rules of the game?
30% sr
30% roi
200 bet sample

Any other rules?

thanks

Pytelium

PYTELIUM.........No rule for 30% STRIKE RATE......BUT I WILL RECAP HERE MY RULES.......TOPRATED(OR JOINT TOP) MASTER RATING............LTO SAME RATING..........ALL RUNNERS MUST HAVE A RATING........LTO MAX OF 28 DAYS.Those are the 4 RULES of the system.........No bets till 200 selections..........and no bets unless +30% profit at SP prices.

YESTERDAYS RESULTS(Not happy reading).......3rd 7/4, 3rd 2/1, L 9/1, L 5/1, L 4/1, 2nd 2/5, L 5/1..........R/T......25/70.......+ 12.2 POINTS.............TODAYS SELECTIONS.......2.30 E.....MUBAASHIR......5.05 E......SOLENT......2.20 M......THE LEATHER WEDGE.........5.10 M.......CRATHORNE.........5.45 M........THE GREAT DELANEY.

Dylan I thought I might run your system with some tweaks through my database to see if i could come up with a consistent month on month profitable system, here is the result:-

RULES

1. Horse must have highest Master Rating (can be shared top);

2. Horse must have the highest LTO rating (can be shared);

3. Horse with the Highest Master and Highest LTO Rating gets selected provided they are equal. [PLEASE NOTE THIS AS VERY IMPORTANT] If there is another qualifier then the one with the highest highest M+A is chosen. If there is still a tie then no selection (unlikely);

4. The LTO rating can be no longer than 250 days;

All Weather

5A The race distance must be 10f and lower;

6A Selections only valid in classes 4-6 inclusive

7A Selection can only be taken if SP price is between 15/8 to 7/1 inclusive

Turf

5B The race distance must be 11f and lower;

6B Selections only valid in classes 4-5 inclusive

7B Selection can only be taken if SP price is between 5/1 to 10/1 inclusive

KNOWN ISSUES

There are some missing races in May that I need to add to my database to assess. Also at the beginning of January and some dates in May I have missing LTO day’s data which I need to fill in. As soon as I've done that I will post up any changes. Hopefully it will not cause too a dramatic change.

PERFORMANCE (EARLY JAN TO JUNE 02, 2006)

INITIAL DRAWDOWN = -2.00
LONGEST LOSING RUN = 6
PEAK TO TROUGH = -8.00

SURFACE; WIN/SELECT, SR%, £1 P/L, ROI%, AO, A/E

ALL WEATHER; 17/52, 33%, +31.83, 61%, 4.93, 1.61
TURF; 6/23, 26%, +26.50, 115%, 8.26, 2.15
TOTAL; 23/75, 31%, +58.33, 78%, 5.80, 1.78

MONTH; WIN/SELECT, SR%, £1 P/L, ROI%

JAN (PARTIAL); 3/10, 30%, +5.33, 53%
FEB; 4/11, 36%, +7.25, 66%
MAR; 5/15, 33%, +14.00, 93%
APR; 6/22, 27%, +14.25, 65%
MAY (INCOMPLETE); 4/13, 31%, +12.50, 96%
JUN; 1/4, 25%, +5.00, 125%

SR% = STRIKE RATE %AGE WIN/TOTAL
£1 P/L = PROFIT TO LEVEL STAKES USING RETURNED SP
ROI% = RATE OF RETURN %AGE PROFIT/TOTAL
AO = AVERAGE ODDS IN DECIMALS
A/E = ACTURAL WINS DIVIDED BY EXPECTED WINB (MORE THAN 1 IS DESIRED)

As I've stated this system is complementary to the one I've detailed in the other thread. When there are the same selections, I would advise to double the stakes. If both systems are combined the potential performance for the last 5 months would be:-

60/180, 33% SR, +152.79, 83% ROI

VC....CHEERS......as you know you have more computer knowledge/experience than me.The BASIC SYSTEM that I have been trying out on this thread seems to be faltering now.......combined figures of the 2 ideas seem pretty good ,and of course the HIGH ROI...which we both try to achive.

YESTERDAYS RESULTS......L 7/4, L 5/1, L 10/1, L 7/4, L 3/1.........R/T.......25/75.......+ 7.2 POINTS.............TODAY......NO SELECTIONS......which will come as a blessed relief after the last 2 days..........I'm off to buy a "lucky" black cat

For those who are not familiar with the "VC" layout of the figures............THE BASICS are......the SYSTEM would pick about one winner in 3...(31% actually)......would make about 12 POINTS PROFIT PER MONTH.....with a ROI of 78% at SP.Bit to early to put the mortgage on the selections as we both use 200 selections as the bare minimum for a system.....but still looks good at this early stage.

Cheers to both of you for putting in the work. Don't give up Dylan, two days of bad results will happen now and then, you'll only be a day away from another good day!

VC, will you be posting any selections?

Matty, the answer is no sorry to say. There are so many every day however very few if any will actually be bet on because of the SP pricing stipulation.

What we need is the ability to set up alerts based on various parameters (like the ones I and Dylan have posted) and on here it would spit out the list of qualifiers. However Inform Racing (IR) would have to make available it's database to backtest scenarios and then have the capability to give us daily alerts. Hopefully at some point in the future we can have such a facility.

Here are the qualifiers/results for June W/E 04/06/06 based on the parameters I posted regarding Dylan's system:-

01/06/06, 12 Drifting Gold(15), 2:30NOTTINGHAM(TR), 15/2, UP, -1.00
01/06/06, 3 Robustian(7), 8:55SANDOWN(TR), 15/2, 2ND, -1.00
01/06/06, 10 Taboor(5), 4:30YARMOUTH(TR), 8/1, 1ST, +8.00
02/06/06 8 Starboard Light(2), 4:25WOLVERHAMPTON(AW), 5/1, UP, -1.00
03/06/06, 10 Hythe Bay(2), 3:40FOLKESTONE(TR), 7/1, 1ST, +7.00
03/06/06, 6 The Leather Wedge(7), 2:20MUSSELBURGH(TR), 10/1, UP, -1.00

W/T; 2/6, 33% SR, PL£1; +11.00, 183% ROI

Hi Dylan

Assuming that you ddn't find a rope and a tree.... at least one of your seven did not actually meet your stated criteria. (Can't remember which one but I think it was running in a maiden with lots of un run horses)
Your system was working, just needs some filters. I would definitely recommend filtering out Group and listed races. I'd also have a look at leaving out races with 16+ runners.

Cheers