I'm sure you are pleased with the results you have thus far. I have checked your system as well as many others as far back as Jan 06 (as I have full data until then) and it seems to me that there is a big difference between Turf and AW and you have to differentiate with different price bands.
BTW the most successful (profitable) price bands for yours are:-
AW 15/2-17/2
Turf 17/2-11/1
All other prices you get the usual churning effect. BYW changing the rules as you did makes it worst than the original one.
However I don't trust the results fully as they are only for a partial season and only a few months. As you know 10 years is the ideal backtesting period.
YESTERDAYS RESULTS......WON 5/4, WON 5/1, WON 1/2, L 7/4, WON EVENS, WON 2/5..........there was a 56/1 fivefold in there but the 155/1 sixfold failed..........R/T.........12/28.......+ 16.32 POINTS.
Brilliant Dylan,will open the champagne after 200 results and bet live!
One small query on the rules;I presume MASTER TOP RATED means clear master top rated and not joint?
PYTELIUM.........If the MASTER TOP RATED was JOINT I would still use it......as long as the LTO figure was the same.So far this "filter" has always only produced one selection in any race.Even if there were 2 selections that came up in a race I would probably just split the stake 50/50.
BENDING THE RULES.........The rules I posted I do bend in one respect.......I did say there has to be a rating for EVERY HORSE in the race.I do ignore this in a FEW RACES.....Non Handicaps/Maidens/etc.......For example if there is one horse with no rating.....perhaps its making its debut....put its priced at 50/1 or 66/1....and the POTENTIAL SELECTION is priced at 6/4 fav.I will still bet the selection.But this only occurs in a few races.
EACH WAY........I have been putting a few of the selections that I am not confident about as "E/W"........e.g.BABY STRANGE today......forecast was 4/1.....but the marked showed it was probably going to win (S/P 9/4).......when this happest just best to bet TO WIN.
Going very well so far and not forgetting a slight improvement on all prices could be had with Betfair.
I think a couple of your selections have come quite close at half decent odds lately too and one winner at 5/1 or better would really help increase profits.
I admire your 'paper trading' policy but personally I like to get stuck in with real money even if its just the minimum £2 on Betfair, but that's just me.
I agree with Ian I can never paper trade as I especially when using betfair like to record the actual prices I took rather than the theoretical as practice and reality can be different. Obviously to SP these assumptions are not needed.
Also to eek a little more profit you could use centrebet as they roll up to the next odds so yesterday Tokyo Jo at 11/10 would have paid 12/5 even better when above 8/1 as you get a whole point better profit.
I like this better than Betfair as if backing early at least you will not back a horse at 4.07 that then drifted like made and started at 8.0 (oh yes that happened to me last week)