People have been advocating the benefits of looking at the Top 3 LTO as a single selection criteria and focussing on bigger priced selections.
Today Winner at 12/1 - Daniella
Winner at 12/1 - Mister Completely
winner at 13/2 - Hulla Ballew
( all in handicaps which I think will be more fruitful for this idea)
If anyone has not covered a years subscripton today you are not trying.
Impossible cards at Ponte + Notts made easy.
I have been place laying these short priced favourites, they all lost.
Nice winners at Kempton (My new favourite racecourse with Wolverhampton) who'd have thought that !!!
Keep em comin
Tremendous Ian
Also we had Princess Nada 7/1 and Harvest Queen 14/1. I know what you're saying about handicaps Jim but I don't mind maidens either. The way the tables are set out (especially on maiden races) it brings home how important a run or two is. There doesn't seem to be too many win that are unraced, many at very short prices.
Unlucky with your selection today Jim, good luck tomorrow.
Hi Joe, do you back to big stakes, if you don't mind me asking. You seem to have done well today by the sound of it.
Hi Jim
About £20-£25 Per race + PLACE LAYS ON 3 OR 4 HORSES £15-20 each (Some were 1.15,1.24,1.21,1.42,1.61 etc.)
More if they are 15 runner handicaps, my favourite and a real moneyspinner the lay prices are really short but people still back them for good sums of money.
Try it on paper for a week, but as Ian will verify when the weather is set fair the tables really come into their own and with 3/4 meetings per day there should be about 7-10 races a day to get involved in Make hay my friend !!
regards
Joe.
Taking Top 3 LTO as starting point, analysing the form and not backing at less than 6/1- 7/1 minimum I suggest the following for today
2.30 F Hucking Hot
2.50 R green Pirate
3.20 R Methuselah
3.30 F Piccostar
3.50 R Jenice
4.00 F Ivory Lace
4.30 F Alwariah/royal Agreement
5.20 R smooch
Joe
Can you tell me which races you are taking part in today for laying and is it just the fav on the place market? How long have you been doing this?
What are your criterion for backing?
Thanks
Nick
Laid
CD Europe,Malech,Compromisznotension 1.1 for £18 ouch!!,See in the Dark, Misaro.
Backed Spirit of Arosa 13/2, Pitana 6/4, Methusaleh (system strikes again 10/1 - 7/1 !!Major Third 5/1,High Ridge 8/1 (Dettori rides a winner for me, never been known!!)
Good Weather = Profit
Beware rain forecast on Sat + Sun
Keep em comin
Joe.
Joe
Thanks for your updates.
Am I right in thinking you lay to a place favs less than 2/1 that are 3rd or less in master rating column?
How long have you been laying these, looked profitable today has it been in thelong term?
Are you laying European Dream 8:00 Mussel?
The selections you backed today were they the only ones?
Thanks
Nick
Still backed the Warrior at 11/1 (top rated master, course and distance)and laid Fullandby at 4/6
Unlucky with Toss the caber 18 at 24/1 but nice saver on Whoopsie.
Laid Midnight Pearl 11/10 for a place
7.30 Saif Sareea one to take on and I will with P/Power + P/Charmer.
8.00 looks a steal for money but will wait nearer the time (European Dream was so impressive on Monday and did us favour might be one to be on the right side of unless really short Now a 0/85 not 0/75 h/cap)
8.30 looks a nightmare (will have well earned Stella Artois instead)
All the best for tomorrow gentlemen
Keep em comin Ian
regards
Joe.
Expensive glass of Stella
Angaric + Beowulf nice forecast.
I think we have something here
Cracking day Ian !!
Good one Joe, hopefully getting back to last years form from now on. Well rated horses coming out on top and at good prices too.
Ian
Joe
What are you plans for today, in particular which short favs are you intending to lay?
Thanks
Nick
Some cracking winners today
Scamperdale 5/2
Cottingham 9/1 (12/1 B/Fair)
Gala Sunday 15/2 (10/1 B/fair
Mulberry lad 11/8
Sarahs art 7/4
Rock Fever 14/1 (25/1 B/Fair)
Figaros Quest 5/6
At the lovely Wolverhampton
Avertuoso 7/2
Royal dignitary 25/1 (40/1 B/Fair)
Will He Wish 11/1 (16/1 B/Fair)
Attaca 5/2
Jidaar 7/1
Silvertown 11/4
at the poor Musselburgh
Top 3 rated has had a field day
Everyone must have won today
Major Magpie (Big Lay finished about last)
Roll on tommorrow
Lets go Ian !!
(Saturday is always tougher small stakes planned)
Cheers
Joe.
Everytime a top 3 rated wins at a price I know Joe is smiling!
Great stuff Joe.
Joe,Do you back the top 3 rated in every race or just certain type of races.Would you back them at level stakes.
Today tremendous best day this season so far 2k, tommorrow looks impossible,frightning,dangerous,perplexing !!
Go with the wife to ASDA/Tesco/Waitrose/Morrisons/Herons if you have no courage
If not please follow these instructions
1)Print off cards
2)Write R/Post prices next to cards
3)Send wife to Metro Centre for new shoes and handbag at 1pm as she only has dozens of each !!
(will take her 2 hours to park)
4)Get kids to mow lawn, wash up etc.
5)Keep Clear head
6)Start laying those Favourites to place (Saturdays the best day)
7) Back outsiders 10/1 or bigger on B/Fair 2/3 per race £12-£16 per horse.
8) Keep faith for 12-15 races, massive opportunity as weather and going will change on Sunday.
Best of luck
Better than tremendous Ian !!
Keep em comin
(Your putting 2 of my lads through University)
Joe
Hi Joe
Do you back all the tope 3 rated horses or just the ones with prices above 10/1. You mention quite a few winners for yesterday with lower prices did you back all these?
What sort of points bank do you need?
Any chance of you posting what you are laying and backing.
Thanks
Nick
I have been trying to filter out some of the top 3 or so rated last time out so that you don't have to back them all. Unfortunately I have only succeeded in tying myself in knots!
The safest method I am now using is to back all as long as the price of any is bigger than the number of selections.
If you have 3 selections and one is 2/1, one is 5/1 and the other is 12/1 I would just back the second two. It has certainly been successful in the last week or so.
Good Luck
Keith
Thanks.
Does that mean you are backing say 4 or 5 in race?
This could mean you are having say 40 or 50 bets per day, is this correct?
Nick
It can add up to quite a few but with some of the recent results it has been worth it. I do increase the stake a little after a few losers which can result in great payouts if the timing is right!
Often the last time out rating can relate to a race over a different distance or on different going.
Tonight at Windsor the going has gone to soft and it often gets very soft at that track ( although this is not always reflected in the official descriptions check out some of the actual race times)
Looking at the Top 3 LTO there are not many that achieved their rating on soft ground or are proven over a similar trip.
the only one for me tonight which does fit the bill is day to rememeber in the 6.50
