I appreciate that the Inform Speed System that had started well at the turn of the year has nosedived a bit in the last month or so, but the other free system for members, The Inform Lay System has continued to perform well.
January +14.75pts
February +7pts
March +12.5pts
April so far +16pts with Bullseye losing today the latest success. No winners at all this month and only two have been placed from 16 bets.
These profits may be hit a little as you will be laying on Betfair and the price may be a bit above the sp but as 6/1 is the limit, it shouldn't dent the bank that much more.
It may be a bit early in the season to say it will continue in this way but so far so good. I think improving 3 year olds or gambled on 'no hopers' will be the horses that could foil this system if anything. Lets hope not.
Typically I wait nearly the whole month before praising this system and today of all days the lay system picks a winner. Major Magpie Won 5/1 but also two winning lays in Alf Tupper and Tamora and still 13 points up on the month.
Young Bertie 3rd at 7/2
Captain Torrance 13th at 11/2
Blue Opal 5th at 5/1
April so far +14 points
Even if laying is not your thing, these horses could at least be eliminated from a shortlist. A fair number finish unplaced so could be laid for a place on Betfair possibly.
Is there anyway to highlight all runners in red that meet the initaial first pass regarding the lay system, and all that is needed is to wait for the SP price. Also the same goes for the Bet system to highlight the runner in green. some other method could be used for marking maybe an extra column with L or B in it. It will be far easier than trying to do manually all the time.
Regarding the two systems and highlighting any possible bets. I have discussed highlighting certain figures or rating box backgrounds before both on the web site and with colleagues and we never really had the real 'need or want'to do it in the end.
I can see the benefits but if we highlight these two systems and I also thought about highlighting all ratings that were one of the top three ratings from all horses past three runs, then found another system that could be highlighted, the race cards would start to look a mess and confusing.
The Inform Speed System has gone downhill in the last couple of months and I will probably remove it soon. It seems that any qualifying horses or most in any case are actually not particularly good bets as they have too much going for them, are too short a price usually and will be over bet. Many are horses that have form figures all either 1,2 or 3 and as we know they don't always win.
As for the lay system it does seem to have something going for it and will be fully monitored over the coming months. Even allowing for a 20% increase in the price to lay on Betfair the results since January 2006 are:
January 27 bets, 24 lost +11.8pts
February 24 bets, 21 lost +5.25pts
March 34 bets, 29 lost +9.2pts
April 38 bets, 32 lost +10.3pts
Not retirement making profits but a fair addition to any other methods you may be using.
We will see how it continues, but a point to be made is that there are hundreds of horses that would qualify and do lose everyday using tghe rules of this system but are over 6/1. It would be worth looking back on the results to see not only these other losers but how many of them were actually placed, maybe to place lay them on Betfair? I would leave out 3yo handicaps on these bets.
Anyway, it is quite simple to see any qualifiers for this system I think, although I am used to it a bit more I suppose.
The lay system helps me a lot as part of my handicapping system as it elimiantes a few 'no hopers' from the evaluation although I have seen soem come through and win at high odds, the other day there was one at 11-1 I recall, but I do not use it to lay horses only yto put as a-ve in handicapping a race. If there was the ability to display an extra column with a cross or tick that will be very helpful rather than doing oneself which is laborious.
To find a good betting system if you have a few years worth of speed ratings it would be easy through number crunching to historically come up with a system that can work, that is what I have discussed in another thread. As always in betting no system ever works 100% of the time and therefore you need to build a portfolio of systems so any that start to fail will not cuase a big issue if you have 5-10 running at the same time.
What would be really interesting if you have data far back enough is to see the performance in terms of ROO% if you place laid all those which qualified using Betfair odds.
We really need a backtesting facility to test out our concepts to as far back as you have data. This would make proto-typing much easier. Any cahnce of arranging something in the near future?
Regarding back testing any systems I totally agree that it is always better to test a larger sample, however at present this is unfortunately not possible. I can only work off the database at present, not the past race cards but I will look into this to see if it could be done in a any way.
Ian, it would be nice if you could post all the qualifiers of both bet and lay systems somewhere on the site as it would make life a little easier. Of cours it would be best if it were posted in a column against the horse itself on the speed data cards, but having it either here on the forum or a section in Members area would be very helpful.
I'm afraid that I don't have the time to post all of the selections for the systems and I will never have a column for them on the race cards. There would be too many selections to post after all and they only become qualifiers if they are 6/1 or less at the off.
I am only highlighting the lay system at present as it has been successful from the start of the year.
Today there were two selections;
Senor Dali 3rd 5/1
Peopleton Brook Won 9/2
+7.6 pts up on the month including 20% on top of losing bets.
Latest update on the system shows a current profit in May of 7.4pts. This includes 20% on top of all winning sp's for laying on Betfair.
27 selections, 3 losing bets
Since the start of the year there has only been one losing bet that came directly after another. Perhaps a laying retreival method could be used as there seem to be no long losing runs up to this point.
Hi Ian maybe being a bit thick here but my understanding that we choose a horse to lay that has not achieved its average rating in the last three runs, by definition to achieve the average it must have done this in the last three outings???
Hi Darren, you take the lowest rating from the top 3 rated in the Avg column. If the top 3 in the Avg column, which are highlighted in bold, are 77, 74, 71 then any horse that has not acheived 71 in any of its last three runs is a bet, if it 6/1 or less at the off.
Yesterday there were four selections that came 7th, 7th, 9th and 4th and were Uig, Gringo, Chess Board and Liberate.
If you look at past results there are hundreds that would qualify each day but are all at over 6/1. These can be laid but a 20/1 winner, probably at 30/1 on Betfair would break the bank most times. This is why I stick to 6/1 or less for the system rules.
