welcome craig the figures are good but i think to start with you are better paper trading and watching which figures perform well.i use them to x ref with my own speed ratings and if we have a match its a bet. this is just com,ing to end of first month and i am happy with results,even though it as been a bad end to the month for me personnally.but it lokks like i am going to be about 30 points up on month with what my stake is i am very pleased with that.will start rcording a new month from tomorrow
Craig, that's great news that you are getting some benefit from the figures.
I too am a recent subscriber. I paper traded all the Master and LTO figures yesterday 21st July and made a dreadfull loss. something like a 35 pts defecit.
Would like to know from other members if this is normal.
I have been making some decent money recently following the basic ratings with certain filters.The last week has seen a deterioration in returns but yesterday was terrible.
Previously the results were so good I was close to putting my ideas in the forum.Now my confidence has taken a bit of a knock.
The filters I am using are not very original just borrowed without much checking from other members.The major ones as far as I am concerned include leaving out all maidens,2yo races,class 1&2, "extreme "distances ie 5f and anything further than 2 miles and the AW at least at the moment.I dont have any proof that these are the right filters but they seem to help.
The other area I need to consider more carefully is the betting market.Although there arnt many better feeling than betting on a 46-1 winner the reality is that most winners come from the first 3 or 4 in the market.Does anyone have a rule of thumb guide that might help here.
I'm sure I've seen it documented somewhere that basically it divides into three: one third of winners come from favourite/2nd favs, one third from next few 'main market' horses, and one third from outsiders. Most systems/strategies that seem to work tend to have a minimum odds at around 6/4 or 2/1 (thinner odds gives loads of churn but no progress) and a maximum at around 8/1 or 10/1 (above which the strike rate gets too low).
So your feeling that most winners come from the first 3 or 4 in the market is imho probably about right. I.e more than 50%.
Market is a funny thing: I used to subscribe to a tipper who based a lot of his selections on whether the horse was being supported. Certainly in winter mid week racing if you can't see a good few lumps of £300 going down then nobody connected with the horse gives it any chance. Which is generally a good indicator! Trouble with checking for support is that by the time it is clear the horse is being gambled on, the price has gone... And its real easy to get sucked in on phantom gambles. And of course on weekends there is silly money around which confuses the picture totally. And a tiny few of the gambling yards seem to have the discipline amongst connections to get all the money on at the very last minute. That all said, I think it is sound playing in the 2/1 - 8/1 area and checking that your selection has some solid money support. It doesn't make it bolted on, but is another bit of positive.
