There are loads of systems that we can use with Inform taking just the bare stats and even just using the ones highlighted by Ian.

Recording results of all these is impossible however how about if a few people kept records of one system only and posted the results of that on a cumulative basis at the end of each days racing.

The ones I was thinking of were along the lines of

Highlighted Master
Highlighted LTO
Highlighted M&A
Top Course and Distance combined total (winning Method 2)
Any horse with one of top 3 ratings from last 3 runs (winning Method 2)
etc.

I will keep records of backing all of the top master rating selections (i.e best form over last 12 months). This could be in the region of 3-5 horse dutches.
No filters etc unless runners equals qualifying bets.

Filters etc can be stored/worked on and used as pointers but will be just the bear stats at the outset to make thinks easy.
All odds to SP and figures quoted would be along the lines of
No. Races
No. Selections
No. Winning Bets
Strike Rate (obviously winners/races (not selections))
Stakes
P/L
ROI

This will help all members evaluate methods etc without the need for keeping individual databases.

Hope this interests a few of you

Stu

Backing top 3 master rated (or joint)

Day One

Races - 12
Winners - 6
Strike Rate 50%

Selections/Stake - 44.00
Profit/Loss - (6.75) Points
ROI - (15.70)%

Was a bit unlucky as 4 runners in the 4.30 at Salisbury as a non runner all were rated so no bet but eventual actual winner was 11/1.

hi stuart i will track highlited m&a from monday
good idea

Cheers Taff, thanks for the support

Day 2 (Cumulative Results)

Races - 50
Winners - 16
Strike Rate 32%

Selections/Stake - 118.00
Profit/Loss - (4.16) Points
ROI - (3.53)%

Bank High +13.34
Bank Low -13.37

Well day two and the the strike rate drops but a slight profit on the day, this was mainly thanks to Bodden Bay at 12/1 and Adobe at 25/1.
Difficult looking day tomorrow at Royal Ascot and 118 bets in 2 days is over the top and at a strike rate of 32% the system will struggle longer term but this is what the idea of this thread is all about.

One point to note I use centrebet that pays SP plus as I have to put my bets on early, recording these to SP plus turns a 4.16 Loss into a 7 point profit mainly again as adobe paid 28/1 not 25/1, I guess with Betfair this was even bigger.

Please join me here with this as I am sure we can all benefit and it only takes about 20 minutes to record all the results daily.

Stu

Stuart and everyone

To monitor the performance of highlighted Master, LTO and M+A ratings you will find to be a losing strategy unless you use price filters. Generally speaking without any price filters whatsoever, the SR% will be between 15-18% and the ROI will be -12% to -3%. There is no way to make any money unless you eliminate at minimum odds-on qualifiers. There is then a profitable range from alomost any price from Evens upwards however with differing SR% and ROI%. The losing runs however can be very large indeed.

The 2 systems put up by IR with price filters of 10/1 and above are very profitable in terms of ROI% 30% and upwards reaching almost 100% in some months, however the SR% is low between 7-11% - but not surprising due to the price stipulation - however you will suffer very large losing runs.

In the end it is a balance between SR%, ROI% and Losing Runs which will determine the kind of staking you are willing to deploy. A losing run of 50+ can destroy a betting bank very quickly unless you either use variable staking or at the outset consider a possible maximum losing run of say 100 points or more.

I only have data back to mid Jan 06 and therefore am very wary until I have at least 3 years worth to analyse. Normally I like to backtest various strattegies with 10 or more years, however this will be impossible with IR speed figures as none exist that far back.

VC

Thanks for the reply the reason I started this was previously on the winning systems before the site upgrade a few weeks ago there was quotes of good strike rates i.e 48% etc and good consistent profits.

Quote
Backing every top or joint top Master rated horse this turf season currently shows a level stakes profit of +58.9pts

As taken from the website today.

I am more of a high strike rate person as in reality I can live of a 10% ROI but everyone is different.

Once again appreciate your feed back, I think I will continue for a while capturing the results as ever way it may throw something up every with these or some other ratings.

What we ultimately need is a good database/search engine from IR along the lines of Racing systems bulider ( or whatever they are called)

RESULTS AFTER AFTERNOON RACING ON 20/06/06 COULD NOT START YESTERDAY DUE TO A PROBLEM

THESE RESULTS ARE ALL HIGHLIGHTED M&A HORSES

WILL ADD BRIGHTON EVENING LATER

Selections: 44
Winners: 6
Strike Rate %: 13.64
Total Stakes: 44.00
Nett Profit: -11.27
ROI % -25.61

What the stats are saying involves 2 different strategies, one to bet all top 3 and the other is top/joint top they should not be put together

The SR% could be trippled from what I posted if you take the view there can be only winner from a race even though you picked 3 or more.

For example I am showing an SR% of 15-18% based on all selections. so let's say there are 3 selections in a race and can be only one winner. A selection wins but say it's odds-on the actual result will be a loss with equal staking rather than dutching. You could take the following view:-

Race 1
Selection 1 5/1
Selection 2 7/1
Selection 3 10/1

Equal staking and selection 1 wins

Race 2
Selection 1 9/2
Selection 2 8/11
Selection 3 7/2

Equal staking and selection 2 wins

Race 3
Selection 1 11/1
Selection 2 25/1
Selection 3 7/2

Equal staking, all selections lose

Race 1 Result Win, (5-2)/3 = +1.00PT
Race 2 Result Win, (0.73-2)/3 = -0.42PT
Race 3 Result Lose, (0-3)/3 = - -1.00PT

W/R 2/3, SR 67%, P/L -0.42, ROI% -14%

vs the method I used

Race 1 Results, 5-2 = +3.00PT
Race 2 Results, 0.73-2 = -1.27PT
Race 3 Results, -3 = -3.00PT

W/R 2/9, SR 22%, P/L -1.27, ROI% -14%

Same ROI but different SR%

VC
I do infact take a race to be 1 rather than the amount of selections that are picked in that race as there is clearly only one winner. Thus I would hope for a 50% strike rate on average.

Bit of a mess yesterday as I had the number of races wrong.

Results to day 3

Races - 50 (yes it is right now)
Winners - 27
Strike Rate 54%

Selections/Stake - 195.00
Profit/Loss - (1.18) Points
ROI - (0.61)%

Bank High +13.34
Bank Low -14.16

Again a slight recovery today but this is masking the poor show at Royal Ascot.
There was 26 selections at Ascot and only a 2/1 winner so a loss of 23 points.
There are other systems on here taht peope exclude group 1 races, I think this is going to procve to be a filter here as well.
The recovery was at Brighton where we had 4 winners from 6 races and thirsk where we had 6 winners from 7 races albeit a couple of overall lossing bets due to the SP of the winner.
Highlight of the day was Jane of Arc at 20/1.

Stu

Hi Stuart, just to point out that the 48% strike rate is from the top 3 rated not the top rated and just to let you know, if there are say 5 top 3 rated horses I don't count all of theses as top 3. I go on Master, then a higher M+A, then a higher Lto, then Avg to whittle any high number of joint rateds down to just three and these %'s and profits from the top or joint top master and lto are very accurate as I check every race the day after and keep a full record.

You should also bear in mind that the Master rating is the best rating the horse has scored in the last 12 months, not taking any facts into account such as the course, distance or going of this rating or how long ago it was acheived. I'm sure that a bit of form reading could improve these %'s but I also think that this will also make you miss some of the better priced winners too. The current profit of +58 points or whatever it is is just from the top or joint top, not top 3.

Good luck with your testing, I would like to test more but don't have the time. I would like to test the top M+A for each way betting at 5/1 or bigger. I think this could be a good angle and also clear top rated Master and Lto in maiden races seem to prove worth following.

Ian

Thanks for the update Ian

Just to clarify then, the most you will dutch in a race using top master etc is 3.
You then say the 58+ points is from the top or joint top, do I take it then that the profit of 58 points is subject to a lesser strike rate than the 47 odd%.

Also if you have the stats are the top 3 not as profitable as just the top or joint top.

Sorry just to clear the confusion as it appears you use top 3 for strike rate and top or joint top for profit.
thanks
stu

Yes, the strike rate is from the top 3 rated and the profit and loss is from the top or joint top.

Just to give you last weeks info, there were 36 top or joint top rated Master rating winners from 157 races. A strike rate of 23% but there were some long losing runs too.

Strangely enough, the week before had 37 top or joint top rated winners from 158 races (very similar). This second week showed a loss overall but last week showed a profit because of the bigger priced winners.

Looking at the newspaper tipsters, they get about a 25% strike rate and all end up showing a loss but just to point out, this Master rating is not my 'tip' for the race.

However, I think concentrating on the top 5 or so Master or M+A is where the majority of winners come from and if you wait for the decent prices it will pay off.

Ian

Day 2 (Cumulative Results)

Thanks Again Ian, for the clarification. I am quite enjoying this so will continue and monitor difference between top rated and top 3

Races - 75
Winners - 43
Strike Rate 57.33%

Selections/Stake - 289.00
Profit/Loss - (3.30) Points
ROI - (1.14)%

Bank High +13.34
Bank Low -14.16

Small loss on the day but some positives as no real big winner and only one over 10/1 so one more and a nice profit could have been made.
Positive also as some ground was made up at Ascot and yesterdays loss was reduced.

Onwards and upwards

Well totally messed my database up last night and lost first 4 days data.
What I do know is that yesterday was a poor showing, but I do not have the figues without reworking them.

I need to start afresh but I am finishing working on a model to autobet the selections daily (or infact any system seelctions).
This will use Gruss Betting Assistant and I can filter in Min/Max odds, Min/Max runners and min return required if I set variable staking.
Can then also set up to lay all horses in laying system if in price range.

Beauty is can set up spreadsheet and walk away with races loaded 5 minutes before the scheduled start time and bets placed automatically .
Only problem is getting the wife off the pc when I am at work .