Have been looking at the ratings and have an idea for a place system.. Results today so far are..
1st 5 Katie Killane 10-1
2nd 6 King Egbert (FR) 12-1
3rd 9 Miss Glory Be 12-1
1st 2 Dagola (IRE) 8-1
3rd 3 Blushing Hilary (IRE) 11-2
1st 5 Downland (IRE) 16-1 and Unplace Musicol
3rd 12 The Jailer 11-4 F
Rules.
1. Look at all the runners and select the ones with most places in its last five races of similiar type, ie AW, Flat, Hurdle, Chases etc.
2. Discount all races where there are three or more with the same figure IE if three runners all have two places then no bet.
3. Look at the speed ratings and select any horse whose Average rating is in the top five, if you have two selections then back the one with the highest Master, if both have the same then back them both.
In the case of the Wolves 3:40 Downland had four and Musicol had 3, Musicol was in the top five averages but Downland was not but I backed it purely because it had the top Master rating, four places in its last 5 runs and top master meant to me that it stood a **** good chance of placing and at 5/1 on the place Market represented good value..
2nd 3 Ruffie (IRE) 9-1
Two places of its last runs highest of all the runners and second in the Average column..
could you clarify what you mean by placed? King Egbert has not been placed in any of its last five runs, neither had Downland.
thanks
Apologies, copy and paste error the selection was the third placed..
3rd 9 Maromito (IRE) 12-1
As for Downland, if you look at its last 5 AW runs they are 7,3,2,1,1
Remember you are not looking at its last 5 runs but its last 5 runs of this type..
Hi BJ
Are these the only selections you backed yesterday?
Can you put your expected selections up on the forum.
Thanks
Nick
Hi Nick,
No there were other selections which I think did OK.
Apologies but I do not have the time to post all the selections as this was just something I noticed and I have other systems which I back and take up my time which have nothing to do with the speed ratings.
This was just an observation which I thought I would share, not something I will be backing or monitoring..
If I've understood corectly I make today's selections:
Brighton
2.40 Lucayos
3.10 Mission Affirmed
3.40 MAgic Warrior
4.10 Mr Completely
4.40 Fantasy Crusader
Newcastle
2.20 Polish Power
2.50 Awaken
3.20 Gone Too Far
4.20 Sparkwell
Southwell
2.30 Laurel Dawn
3.30 Union Jack Jackson
5.00 Kentucky Bullet
Quite a few, but we'll see what happens
As I have almost finished my selections from other systems and in the interest of helping you I will check these selections and see if I get the same.
Brighton
2:10 Sensuos 3 from 5, 3rd in Ave
2:40 Lucayous 4 from 5, top in Ave
3:10 NO SELECTION, Mission Affirmed only place once on last 5 runs on the Flat..
3:40 Golden Spectrum 3 from 5, 2nd in Ave, Magic Warrior 1 from 5 on the Flat..
4:10 Mister Completely 3 from 5, top in Ave.
4:40 Treetops Hotel, 3 from 5, top in Ave, Fantacy Defender 0 from 5 on the Flat..
Newcastle
2:20 Whispering Death 5 from 5, 6th in Ave, NO SELECTION, (However does look a good selection) Polish Power only 1 from 5 on the Flat..
2:50 Awaken 3 from 5, 2nd in Ave
3:20 Gone Too Far, 4 from 5, 3rd in Ave
3:50 Grand Opera, 3 from 5, top in Ave
4:20 Sparkwell, 3 from 5, top in Ave
Southwell
2:30 Laurel Dawn, 2 from 5, top in Ave. Should be interesting to see how Rowanberry does pipped just but has higher Master rating..
3:00 Fir Tree, 2 from 5, 2nd in Ave
3:30 Union Jack Jackson 4 from 5 top in Ave
4:00 Danum, 3 from 5, top in Ave
4:30 Eforetta, 3 from 5, top in Ave
5:00 Yashin, 2 from 5, top in Ave
There are a number of 15Horse races in there with only 3 places and generally it is best not to back place selections in large fields with so few places but see how these do today..
Hi BJ, have been looking at a place system myself in the last few weeks which bases selections around the Top 3 from all horses best three runs. Had Wodhill Gold Won 25/1 and Whittingham Village 2nd 66/1 today as well as a couple of other winners and losers too.
Just to make a point about your methods which are based on good sense, especially Download on Monday as he had not had many runs on the AW but had good form when he did. I have been looking at horses avg figures on Inform Racing and have found that if a horse has very close ratings for his last three runs which gives him a good average figure it doesn't necessarily mean a good run is forthcoming. A lot of speed books suggest that a horse or many horses can only maintain form for three good runs, meaning the next run could show a drop in form.
Not trying to intefere and I may be wrong but I hope this suggestion helps in some way, love the ratings, let me know what you think.
Hi Kelly.
That is some very useful information indeed. So basically disregard good averages where they were achieved on the last 3 runs if in or around the average.. Makes sense because like you say very few but the best can string long winning performances together..
Well done yesterday on your selections, some very nice priced horses there..
Thanks for your input much appreciated..
