I've been looking through the forum and a lot of theories point towards the top lto figures and horses with the bigger prices to be backed.I back at level stakes and think it is not a good idea to ignore any horses under 6/1.For example if you take the top 3 horses in any race last time out and one of thoses horses is priced at 2/1 then it is worth backing because if you put 10 or 20 quid or whatever you like to put on each of the horses at level stakes and the 2/1 shot wins you would break even for the race.You get your stake money back and move on to the next race.If there are 4 horses in the the figures for lto than you would want one of thoses horses to be no less than 3/1.Obviously a horse outside the top figures can win but judging on what people have been posting it seems that a large percentage of winners come from theses figures.So in theory i think it is worth backing 3 of the horses in a race if one of thoses horses in no less than 2/1 or backing 4 horses in a race if one of thoses is no less than 3/1.So any race that has a favorite with one of the top 3 lto figures that is less than 2/1 can be elimanated reducing the amount of bets to be put on each day.Any feed back with this idea will be much appreciated.

Hi Brian, it does seem, perhaps because of the way the race cards are set out, that people do find that backing more than one horse in a race is not such a bad idea.

Personally I prefer to do this as it gives you a better chance in a race and often I will back 4 or 5 but this may be too much for some people. I know Dave Nevison the pro punter has no problem with backing more than one horse in a race.

There are simple methods, just using level stakes or for the big handicaps you could try using the bet calculators to win the same set amount whichever horse wins.

I do also like to look out for horses at big prices with one of the top 3 ratings from all horses last three runs as this gets a lot of decent 14/1, 16/1, 20/1+ winners all the time.

Ian

I agree Brian,

I do dutching a lot and as Ian says you can vary the stakes to get an equal return as well as level stakes.
I sometimes also use variable stakes to have two horse on my side and one or two to breakeven.
depending on the number of runners it does mean backing odds on but I do not have a problem with that.

Thanks Ian and stuart,i think that is the way i will approach my betting and see how things pan out.

Hi Brian

Heres another concept to consider.

You often find that when there are 3 market leaders that are very much shorter than the others in small fields, that the winner comes from one of the 3 market leaders.
When they are also clear on the LTO performance then you have a potential investment opportunity to Dutch the 3 or try another approach.

As well as straight forward Dutching, VDW had another method with backing three horses in a race.
He suggested splitting them into two bets and follow on a staking plan. He said to call the horses A,B & C, then couple A with B and B with C

Let A be the shortest price and so on. Two ponts on placed on A and one point on B (AB bet 3 points invested) next place one point on B and one point on C (BC 2 points invested) If B wins you make a profit on both banks

Lets look at a few recent races that were run at Kempton & MUSSELBURGH to demonstrate the method.


2/5/06
7-56 KEMPTON (A.W) 1m 2f ,8 run
HAPPY 25TH ANNIVERSARY TONY & BEVERLEY HANDICAP (0-80) (4) 3YO

Top 3 last time out and top 3 in betting
1. Sivivatu 70 (B) 7/2
2. Ahmedy 71 (C) 9/2

6. Royal Amnesty 76 (A) 100/30 won



Bank AB Result Bank BC Result

3pts 5.66pts + 2pts -2pts Equals 73% profit on investment



05/05/2006
2-20 MUSSELBURGH 5f ,6 run

Howards Prince 60 9/1
2. Toy Top 68 2/1 (A)
3. Highland Song 67 3/1 (c)
4. Welcome Approach 66 5/2 (B) Won
5. Hypnosis 56 11/1
6. Compton Lad 58 Non Runner


Bank AB result Bank BC result
3 points 0.50pts + 2points 1.50+ In this example B wins and both banks make a profit and Equals 40% Total profit on investment


Traditional Dutching would have made 15.07 % profit



0 MUSSELBURGH 7f ,7 run
RUK EVENING RACING CALL 08700 50 69 47 HANDICAP (0-65) (6) 4YO+


2. Joshua's Gold 73 (B) 3/1)

4. Insubordinate 72 (C) 4/1

6. Attacca 77 (A) 5/2 Won



Bank AB Result Bank BC Result
3 points 4pts + 2pts 2- This time A wins and Bank AB makes a substantial profit and Bank BC makes a loss of 2.00 points but still maintains 40% profit on investment

Traditional Dutching would have made 31.94%

See below for the balance of the two Betting Banks


Bank AB Bank BC

10.16 + 2.50 -


Good Luck

Monster

Thanks monster,that is definitly something i will try out next time i come across a race where 3 horses are top 3 lto and top 3 in the betting.

Hi Brian

Remember to stick to smaller fields, less opposition to cause upsets.

Good Luck

Monster

Monster

In principal what you have outlined is a 2-2-1 staking system starting at lowest priced selection and working upwards. What would you do if the price of the lowest (or jointly) selection is 6/4 and under?

Just to confirm when you are allocating the staking, once you have the 3 highest LTO, the SP pricing then becomes controlling irrespective of the LTO position. For example if the highest LTO had the highest SP price of the 3 it would be allocated 1 point rather than 2.

What do you consider as small fieild 10 runners and less?

Hi Rob

Its just like traditional dutching and of course you need a decent spread of odds to make it worthwhile. Personally, 2/1 is about as short as I would want to go with the favourite. Don't forget in effect you are operating two Banks. Bank AB is hopefully the one that will show the most profit and Bank BC is really a recovery bank.

In answer to your questions.

1) Yes if the highest Rated LTO is 3rd favourite then only 1pt is placed.

2) The smaller the field the better as their are less chances of an upset, less than 10 runners would be best, unless your reading of Form can rule out everything but the front three in the market.

Its a bare bone method that Forum members can experiment with before parting with any hard earned cash and I would suggest that they only paper trade to start with.

We know that a large percentage of winners come from the first three in the betting market and nearly 50% of winners come from the Top Three LTO rated by Inform

Last AW Season Winner found from the top 3 in the Lto column. 53%.

Last Turf Season Winner found from the top 3 in the Lto column. 47%. Its just about evens that the winner will come from the Top Three.

By combining the three with highest LTO ratings when they are also the first three in the Betting Market we can push those percentages to very short odds on that the winner will come from the Top three LTO rated, you are as VDW would say 'Fishing in well stocked waters'

Good Luck

Monster

Thanks for the info. I will try to look at past cards to see if the system makes sense (profitable). Have you used it for long?

Hi Rob

Its a method that I have used with HOOF NH ratings as the ratings have a high strike rate for the Top 3.

Now that I am using Inform Speed ratings I am confident that they achieve a similar high strike rate with their Top 3 LTO. Unlike NH racing you do not have to worry about your runners falling **** over tip and have been experimenting with the method for Flat racing.

I first got the idea from reading an article that VDW wrote. He suggested concentrating on the Principle handicap chase and Principle Non handicap Chase because a high percentage of winners come from the first two or three horses in the betting forecast. After evaluating the race he stated that one should only wager if the selection is in the first two in the forecast.

I noticed that one of the winers he mentioned was one of two market leaders at 9/4 and then there was a gap to 7/1 for the next in the market. Ragged Robin was also mentioned and again I noticed that this time the front three in the market were well clear (3fav was 5/1 and the 4th fav 16/1)

I started to look through the form book and noticed a pattern emerging that a high percentage of winners came from the first two or three in the market when there was a large gap between the front two or three in the betting and the next in the market.

In fact if you are using traditional dutch methods it can almost but not quite be a no brainer way of dutching two market leadres when there is a big gap between them and the 3rd in the betting, without further form study or ratings.

Good Luck

Monster

Hi Rob

interesting link that explains a ratchet technique

http://seneca.fis.ucm.es/parr/GAMES/Paradox%20in%20Game%20Theory%20Losing%20Strategy%20That%20Wins.htm


Good Luck

Monster

Very high brow stuff and a more extensive article if one's brain is up to it can be found here:-

http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/ideas/pdf/Iyengar/complexity.pdf

So the conclusion is to find 2 badly performing betting systems and then randomise betting on each to make a fortune.

Hi Monster

Can you put the selections on the forum the next time you have selections with your ABC system.

Thanks

Nick

Hi Nick

I will do my best, there may not be much notice though as I might find myself waiting for the odds to become viable.

Good Luck

Monster

Hi Monster

Have you had any selections over the last week on your ABC system?

Thanks

Nick

Hi Nick

No, with the recent going changes it would be difficult to use this srtategy as the top LTO qualifiers will quite often have achieved their LTO rating on different going.

In these cirumstances its often past form that you need to look at.

Wait until the going becomes consistent again.



I Recently backed Webbow for a place bet 5.8 (lost) came fifth, worth following though, money lent. Due to run again on Friday at Haydock. I will see how the going is and the competition on Thursday.

Good Luck

Monster

Hi Nick

Typical no brainer possible Dutch is evident tomorrow and it does not matter what the ratings are.

Newmarket 2.25

Nothing outside of 6.5 has won this in the last 9 years

BF Odds to the left.

Latest Betting

Red Rocks 3.3
Tell 3.5
Book of Music 3.75

If you do not want to Dutch the probable winner is ---------
The winner of this race usually goes on to contest the King Edward VII stakes at Ascot. Only Boook Of Music out of the three above holds this entry, Also had a Derby entry (Bypassed) and Still holds an Irish Derby entry. Although this a 10f race is perfectly Bred for 12f, Red Rocks and Gin jockey should contest for the lead and set the pace up for Book of Music, who will not be stopping at the buusiness end of the race and should make his stamina tell.

Good Luck

Monster

Hi

Sorry, BOM & Red Rocks holds a King Edward entry. Stoute/Winston in Listed Races = 2/4

Good Luck

Monster