I have been reading some of the threads and very interesting they are too. Its always helpful when a forum gets used well.

I like these speed ratings and have had some good successes in the recent past but can't help thinking that 3 year old handicaps is just not where the money is. Am I alone in this?

A couple of posts in other threads suggest this, I think. It seems that nothing seems to run to any sort of form which I think is because the horses at this age are maturing and changing and moving into handicaps doesn't seem to help either? Even 3year old maiden races are better for betting on but the handicaps are not for me.

Does anyone else share this view?

I have been following the Inform winning methods recently and find that there are some really good bets here. Just now I had Dazzling Bay Won 20/1 because of its two runs rated at 80 last year (also backed Artie but came nowhere) and I also had Admiral in the Chester cup today at 28/1 because of its rating of 86 three runs ago I think it was (also backed Winged D'argent and Dancing Bay.

Anyone else using this method with any advice on how to cut down on any of the losing bets?

Paul H

Hi Paul,
I agree about 3yo's.

You can cut down on the number of bets. Watch how many actually go to post and only back those at a current price which is no less than the number of runners.
e.g. If 12 go to post, minimum allowable price would be 12/1, just before the "off".

All-age handicaps only, including 3YO+. (No 2YO only or 3YO only).
Minimum of 7 go to post.
No Apprentice only, Ladies or Amateurs races.
Select the three (or more, if a tie) with the highest figures within their last three runs.
Back the top two (if any) with a 1 point Win, each horse, as long as the price stipulation above is met for each horse.
Many races will have none or just one. There was even a tie on qualifying prices and 3 were actually backed.


For your interest:
Results for May. Monday to Friday only, no Bank Holidays.

All of May
Monday to Friday only, no Bank Holidays.
2/5 - 31/5 inc. 21 betting days.
No bets under 7/1.
109 actual bets.
14 winners, 95 losers.
13% strike rate.
Winners @ 7/1, 8/1, 9/1, 10/1, 11/1, 16/1, 16/1, 16/1, 16/1, 16/1, 20/1, 20/1, 20/1, 28/1.
Winnings 213pts, losses 95pts, PROFIT 118pts.

Not for the faint-hearted. There was a losing run of around 39 before picking up the last 16/1 winner of the month. But, even if that had not happened, still over 100 points clear profit.

Good luck,
Tony

Hi Tony, that looks incredible!

Hope you don't mind answering a couple of questions.

Have you not checked for weekend racing or does this worsen the results?

Are your actual prices in the results sp or exchange prices? If your results are sp I amagine the profits would be even better betting on the exchanges!

When you say back the top 2 from all past three runs, if any, do you mean if any are bigger than 7/1 or whatever the number of runners are? So if a race has 12 runners and your top two are 8/1 and 9/1 then no bet?

If its not too much could you give us an example from a past result or from today wheteher there is a bet or not.

Thanks Tony, sorry to ask so much but it looks very good indeed and I will be looking at this and maybe checking past results, thanks.

Hi John,
I trust this may be a solution to Paul having too many bets at long prices.

I'm not a great fan of betting weekends and Bank Holidays. When I checked results for the first Monday and Saturday they were pretty awful, which simply reminded me of why I'm not a fan. Thereafter, I didn't check these days so, therefore, I can't tell you if weekends, etc. come up with the goods or not. My advice, just a feeling, would be leave them alone as far as this system goes.

All prices quoted are SP. I should imagine much higher prices, especially for outsiders, would have been available on Betfair.

For a race to be considered as a betting proposition, at least seven runners must go to post.

You back your two, or less, highest priced selections (going by board prices near the "off".)

If 12 go to post, the highest prices for a bet must be 12/1 or greater. So, if you had two in there at 8/1 and 9/1, disregard them. One at 14/1 you would back to win, else leave the race alone.

If they were priced, 14/1, 12/1 & 7/1 (with 12 running), you'd back the first two only.
Priced at 20/1, 16/1, 16/1 & 14/1 (with 13 running) you'd back the first three, because of the tie, otherwise, just two as stated.
Many races don't have a selection because of low prices.

There were also many other winners within the selctions, at least 3 at 12/1, but they didn't qualify at the start under the rules, other higher priced selections or too many runners for the SP.

SP has to be no less than the number of runners in the particular race.

John, I am not tracking them at present, only did the whole of May, so can't post any current selections. Sorry.

However, from the data below, I think you will be able to back-check for your own satisfaction.

(Number of runners going to post in brackets after race time. Horses with a comment on the right were the actual qualifying bets for that race. Speed rating immediately after horse name.)

One day at random, was a very good day too.

FRIDAY

12/05/06 CHES 3.20 (9)Cl2
JOSH 85 N/R
FIEFDOM 83 6TH 16/1 LOST
ROYAL DIGNITARY 81 8TH 9/1 LOST

12/05/06 CHES 4.35 (13)Cl4
MERRYMAKER 83 3RD 14/1
STRETTON 82 1ST 16/1 WON
LE CORVEE 81 12TH 20/1 LOST
RIVER ALHAARTH 81 4TH 7/2JF

12/05/06 NOTT 5.15 (14)Cl5
PRESS EXPRESS 81 2ND 11/2
JAKE THE SNAKE 81 8TH 85/40F
FABRIAN 81 6TH 10/1

12/05/06 LING 4.20 (8)Cl4
INTRIGUING GLIMPSE 82 6TH 11/2
FINANCIAL TIMES 81 5TH 7/1
PEOPLETON BROOK 79 1ST 5/4F
SILVER DANE 79 3RD 11/1 PLACED

12/05/06 LING 4.55 (12)Cl5 A/W
AGGRAVATION 78 5TH 8/1
GOOSE CHASE 77 6TH 8/1
HOLLOW JO 74 3RD 4/1
EDIN BURGHER 74 7TH 7/2F

12/05/06 HAMI 8.15 (7)Cl4
HULA BALLEW 81 3RD 3/1
MY PRINCESS 80 6TH 5/2F
MISTRESS TWISTER 77 1ST 8/1 WON

12/05/06 HAMI 8.45 (7)Cl5
ALEKHINE 77 4TH 2/1F
QUALITAIR WINGS 73 6TH 9/2
ULYSEES 72 1ST 9/1 WON

7 bets, 3 winners, 29 points up. But it isn't always that good.


Any more questions, do ask. Hope this is of help.
Let us know how you get on, John.

Tony

Hi Tony, I must say I prefer a bigger priced horse myself and these sort of systems find these winners. Handicaps too can throw up some brilliant prices and I've thought before about making the price of the horse bigger than the number of runners as they are supposed to be handicapped to finish level so all 'should' have the same chance.

This system can be back checked, if anyone has time, or I will take a look myself. I did have a quick check back on the first two weeks in May for these top 3 from all races horses and there were loads of winners over 10/1, so many must have been winners from your system.

Good stuff, keep us updated on any progress.

Ian.

Hi Tony, only just seen your system, have been away and it does look good. Following non 3yold handicaps is good I think.

Haven't checked all losers of your system but think there were a couple of winners at good odds yesterday.

Are you logging results?

Hi Chaps,

I'm not currently checking results from that particular method, I'm afraid.

I must say that the method isn't my own, just tried it in response to the original post, requesting how to narrow down the number of losers whilst catching those that gave the biggest return. Seems to have done very well throughout May.

Admittedly missed many more lesser priced winners through them not qualifying totally but, a handsome profit nonetheless.

Good luck to anyone who wishes to follow it but, be prepared for the long losing run which must happen from time to time at outlandish prices like these.

Tony