Hi Guys
I've been a member of Inform for about 12 months and have managed to use the ratings with a reasonable amount of success.
However I think the idea of this Forum ( and with a lot of positive contributions over the last few days )is a real step forward and I would like to thank Ian for all the hard work he has put in over the last few weeks.
Somewhere earlier it was suggested looking at horses that had a rating well clear of the 2nd rated horse as a simple selection process and indeed I went down this line last year and can report the following which might help or at least save someone else alot of time.
I monitored all top rated last time out and recorded them from +3pts to 10+ pts and after paper trading for 2 months decided to choose a minimum of 6+ pts as the criteria.
The results from 552 bets between May 2005 - April 2006 are summarised below - recorded at sp+ and with a minimum qualifying price of 1/1.
May -6.97
June +74.51
July -3.22
Aug +25.17
Sep -5.15
Oct +5.66
Nov -2.22
Dec -2.06
Jan -3.35
Feb +13.95
Mar -2.84
Apr +7.03
Total +100.51
ROI = 18.2% but unfortunately only 5 winning months in 12 has tended to dampen my enthusiasm ( or realistically not allowed me to increase the stakes to a level that I would like ).
A very simple numerical system - would anyone like to take it any further or try to improve it ?
regards
Mike
Hi Mike
How do the results compare if using the principal meeting and the two most valuable races and the most valuable race from each of the other meetings. A filter of 7/1 or less in the RP forecast.
Kind Regards
Mike, thanks for that information which is really useful. I have used systems before which use a margin of superiority as the main selection criteria.
I did start to have a look at the ratings on here but it is great that you have tested this for a year or so. A lot of losing months but 100 points profit is great and this would be worth pursuing.
Interesting the cut off point that you chose. I started with a cut off of at least 4 points and looked at superiority on any of the rating columns.
Backtesting ( admittedly only for 3 -4 months) showed, to my surprise that the most promising avenue seemed to be a superiority on the course ratings, and the LTO ratings offered less promise. Taking a margin of 5 points clear of the next best as the cut off point showed about 30% winners and prices at 9/1,7/1, 13/2 etc . Not that many selections - one or two per week.
This is one that I will continue to monitor.
Anyone else any thought son this?
Sorry about not replying sooner but have been away for a couple of days.
Vinny - sorry but i dont have the results in a format that would be able to answer your questions regarding principal meeting etc. Nor can i answer your question of a forecast price of 7/1 - however I can tell you that if you had restricted your bets to an sp of 7/1 or over your profit would have been +58pts from 77 bets which is a very healthy ROI
However there were periods of 5 weeks (twice) between qualifiers and a patient approach would have been very necessary.
Regards
Mike
Jim
Glad that the info was of use.
12 months ago when I started the research the past result tables were not available and so it was a hard slog each night to record potential systems and time consuming to keep them up to date.
I chose only to look at the LTo column purely because of Ian's comments on the Front page where he highlited the fact that the LTO qualifier was the most profitable (backing blind ) and so concentrated on this feature only.
I recorded all margins from 3+ to 10& over and all were in profit - however there were a lot more qualifiers from the 3+ range and the ROI was under 10% with as many as 20bets some days. On the other hand 10& over bets seemed mainly to focus on the odds on shots so 6+ was a compromise on turnover / risk and suited me at the time.
Glad to hear you are finding an angle on the 4+ bets on the Course ratings - please continue to keep us informed.
MIke
