Hi everyone, hope your luck is in.

I have written a few posts before about backing the top 3 rated last time out either at decent prices or backing all to cover the number of bets and this system is working very well for me at present.

Plenty of winners today, not so good in the evening but this does look the way forward. Horses that are fit and have a good rating last time out will be good bets for the season ahead I think.

There have been some really good priced winners just following these horses including Indian Spark won 16/1 last night.

Good luck

Keith

I'm just wondering about an old Van der Wheil post from the Sporting Chronicle that stated to look for a best career performance last time out AND also down in weight carried from the last run. This is supposedly a sign that a horse is trying? This may act as an additional filter - we could still back the horses over 10/1 whatever but use this for the shorter priced selections?

Keith

Are you doing all the races?

Thanks

Nick

Hi Malc

The VDW method you mentioned was the Roushayd example.

Study those closely that have shown an improved performance when raised in class and then dropped in class to collect. (It is not a system but a method and will require some knowledge of Form etc)

There are a couple of examples from last season listed below. I was not using Inform speed figures last year so the following had shown improvement on the speed ratings that I was using at the time.

Also I used Raceform Form ratings to confirm the improvement. The figures after the Runners name were the last three raceform form ratings from left to right with the LTO rating being the one nearest to the left.


15/10/05

3.45 NEWMARKET 2m 2f ,36 run
Sergeant Cecil 111 108 106



16/10/2005
4.00 MUSSELBURGH 5f ,17 run

King's Gait 91 75 71

VDW mentioned one of his favourite races was The Lancashire Oaks, Check out Playful Act from last season

Good Luck

Monster

Thanks for that Monster. I've just been reading all my old VDW books again- I've just read the Influence of VDW and I can't help thinking that everyone is trying too hard to find winners in every race. I'm now determined to be much more selective but have a bigger bet when I've done the work.

Hi Malc

With regards Roushayd remember that he had won a 12f class 641 and a Speed rating of 59 the previous season. The Old Newton Cup was only a class 170

If you look at Playful Act her Speed figures (LTO Last fig) 94 (Class 54), 107 (Class 420) 108, (Class 1160) Then races in The Lancashire Oaks and dropped in class 522

Also note that Playful Act had the highest Ability rating of the field and was most consistent.

Good Luck

Monster