The CDLTO system offers the following for thursday

Racing Stripes in the first at Folkestone - this should be ignored as the rating is based on its first and only run which, though at the same track was on completely different going.

That leaves two selections at Redcar

Methusalah 3.20
Beverley Beau 4.50

Another winner at 7/1
Last week 20 points with this system

this week so far

Flyin P lost
European D Won 4/1
Espartano Won 1/3
Musical G lost
Diminuto lost
Magic W Won 15/2
Danum 3rd
Geojimaldi Won 6/4
Pawn in Life Won 4/1
Golden Dixie Lost
Methuselah Won 7/1
Beverley B lost

3 or 4 others on the bare system which were thrown out because of going, draw or lack of a recent run

50 % strike rate and 18 points profit this week so far

Really looking good Jim. Glad to see a winner on the turf today too and at a nice price as well.

Good luck tomorrow.

Ian

You should put that Beverley Beau was placed 3rd at 11/2. It seems that a lot of your selections are at least getting placed aren't they?

Don't sell the system short it looks a solid system at present Jim.

Ian

Four selections for Friday/
No fancy prices but solid chances for
Magic Warrior
Dexileos both at Wolverhampton
Reluctant Suitor
Joshuas Gold both at Musselburgh

Good luck Jim going great guns. Good winners too!!

Magic W beaten by an unexpected improver
Dexileos not good enough
Relucant S lived up to it's name. The lesson from that one is to avoid small fields where you often get falsely run races.

Hopefully the lucky last at 5.20 will give us something better.

Poor day today, with 2nd, 2nd and losers.

Tomorrow two selections. Both at Goodwood whichis a course for specialists.

3.25 Pic Up Sticks
5.05 Salamanca

I really fancy Pic up sticks at a big price.Runs well fresh, has won better races than this, trainer in form, probably well drawn.

Great post

Please Place lay the fancied horses, a perfect race for this.

A bookies benefit but it is a real opportunity to make money.

I think Pick up Sticks can be backed and then laid off in running for a large profit.(It has a really good chance, fill your boots.)

Unlucky today Jim. Saw pic up sticks and thought he was given a bit of a bad ride not really trying by the jockey but each way bet from me so no great loss. Plenty of placed horses with your system so keep up the good work!!

Only 1 word for today

OUCH !!

Tomorrow can't come soon enough

Really, Really bad day

Lay George Wasington win and place for £1000 and try to smile. (trying too hard)

Wouldn't get saddled, pulled like a train for 1.5 furlongs.

Burst clear and won !!

Disaster (4/1 in running and still wouldn't back it)

Backed 4th + 5th Each Way at big prices, there is no justice.

Joe

Just seen the results .Was busy yesterday. Pic Up Sticks- 2nd,beaten only by a 33/1 rag. the other selction 3rd. Annoying!

Oh well still a good profit on the week

Todya the system gives us four
1.45 New LEvera
3.05 Salisbury Loyal Rosa
3.30 Newm Nannina
5.15 Newm Camrose

Camrose just touched off into 2nd. Still two winners from four.
The week summary is 8 winners from 22 recommended selections and 15 points + profit.
This follows 21 points the previous week.

The ratings are good Ian and this system is looking good.

Hi Jim, I think if you use the ratings combined with sensible methodology as you are then positive resultsb will follow.

Have you any plans to find out why some of the losers on your system lose? Play around with it a bit?

Great stuff anyway and your points profit so far, especially in the last couple of weeks would match anything out there.

Nice one,

Ian

When I have chance I will have a more detailed look at the results.I will have a look at how many were placed - I am not usually a fan of each way betting but we seem to get a very good percentage placed.
As you say the actual results for the last two weeks using this approach seem to match any other system that I have ever seen. Also, backtesting against the database shows a good level stake profit in each month this year.
Systems theory has shown that, as you make a system more complicated with more variables it can become less predictive rather than more. A small number of sound variables is needed. The results show that your ratings are a sound starting point and are valid.

The best ratings over course and distance plus a rating in the top 3 last time out shows a horse proven in the circumstances and (in most cases) a horse in form.

Other factors which I think need to be taken into account and may account for a good proportion of the losers include

1. The state of the going. I would want the ratings to be achieved on similar going.
2. The form pattern for the horse. As Nick Mordin showed some years ago some horses run really well after a long lay off, others much better with just a few days between races. So, for example if the LTO rating was achieved eight months ago and the horse has not raced since I would want to see some evidence in it's history that it could run well fresh. On the other hand if the LTO rating was just four days ago that would usually sugesst a bigger winning chance ( I have various systems which show , for both flat and national hunt a bigger percentage of winners if racing again within four days). There are always individual differences though and some horses run poorly when turned out again quickly. All of this can quickly ascertained through a glance at the individual form for the horse.
3. The form of the trainer. Again I think that this would gain more importance if the LTO rating is from a less recent run. A horse which has a good LTO rating in the last couple of weeks has demonstrated it's well being and even if the trainers other runners are performing poorly we can be mroe confident that this one will perform well. An LTO from a year ago may have occured when the stable was going great guns- if it is now in the doldrums we should be cautious about this horse repeating it's good showing this time.

I could list a number of other factors. These are some of the most important

Six selections on the system today

Afternoon - 2.30 Wolver - York Cliff
4.30 " Electric Warrior
3.50 Kemp Gadaulpin
4.50 Kemp Lysanders Quest

Two this evening but both have question marks
The forecast heavy rain in the south means that Brabazon at Windsor should probably be overlooked as it's only good performance was on good ground and has two poor ones on soft ground
Speedy Sam will be a short priced favourite at Ayr but has been off for 200 days which makes me wary.

just three selections today after a non runner - no
winners
Tomorrow three more
2.30 Southwell - Bold Trump. poor race but this is best of a poor bunch
3.10 Chepstow -Wisby - very interesting at a big price. The trainer is local and following his runners at chepstow shows a good level stake profit.
8.40 Catterick - Hams

Another placed horse at least with Guadalpin and York Cliff doesn't seem to want it much most of the time. Good luck tomorrow.

Ian

Also regarding your earlier point, I think a good distance figure is probably more important than the course figure but a good one would be a plus, along with a top 5 in the Master ratings and one of the higher ratings of all the horses last three runs, acheived within 30 days or so.

This would be a good basis before checking goings etc.

I agree that trying to filter out too many losers will only filter out a number of winners too.

Hope you keep it going for a couple of weeks at least win or lose to see how you go, so keep posting the selections Jim, these placed horses will start to win more often too.

Ian.

A good system isn't a failure just after a couple of losers. I want to see your selections sure others do Jim to!!

KEEP IT UP