Peter

I have had to set up a new post as I cannot read the other one at work.

When using the advanced the search do you use the actual course as well or do you leave that blank. Where do you get the information about the going.

Do you mind posting your selections when you know what they are? Not sure if I would be able to work out the selections before work due to the going issue.

You seem to have found something potentially very profitable here.

Thanks

Nick

Peter, forgive me if I am wrong but I have tried to work out selections for today using your criteria.

I have excluded one or two which are shortlised due to a poor draw or lack of a recent run etc and come up with the following:

4.30 Lingfield: Glad Big
4.50 Pontefract: Silverhay ( though the price will be shorter than 5/1) and also Zarova.

Jim

Hi Jim.
I was going to post them yesterday but I got to busy and had to abandon the idea.I will run down the hoses now and how I got them:
4.30 lingfield Fajr 7/4 no bet. SD going, 1-12ths, top 3 lto.
3.20 pontefract Mount Usher 10/1 GF GOING, 1-12 MTHS,
TOP3 LTO. RAN 5TH BTN 31/2 LTGHS. (THE HIGH DRAW MAY HAVE BEEN TO HIS DISADVANTAGE AS IT DOES HAVE QUITE AN EFFECT AT PONTEFRACT
4.50 PONTEFRACT QUALITAIR WINGS 16/1 GF GOING 1-12 MNTHS. TOP 3 RATED.
2.40 NOTTINGHAM DANIELLA 12/1 GF GOING. 1-12MTHS,
TOP 3 RATED TOP 3 LTO AND TOP 3 RATED C/D. WON.
ALSO PORTMEIRON GD GOING. 1-12MNTHS.T 3LTO NO BET AT 7/2.
3.10 NOTTINGHAM I WISH GD GOING 1-12 MNTHS, TOP 3 RATED 20/1.
ALSO GF GOING, 1-12MNTHS. NO QUALIFIER.
3.40 NOTTINGHAM RULING REEF GD GOING 1-12MNTHS T 3 RATED.
ALSO JACKIE KIELY GD GOING 1-12 MNTHS T3RTD, T3LTO.
BOTH THESE SHOWED A JOINT FIGURE SO I CHOSE JACKIE KIELY BECAUSE OF ITS BETTER SPEED FIGURES.10/1.
5.40 NOTTINGHAM MICHAELS PRIDE.GD GOING 1-12 MNTHS
ALSO GF GOING, 1-12MNTHS. 10/1.
LOOKED A GOOD BET AND LED FOR 7FLGS BUT DIDN'T LAST OUT.
SO JUST ONE WINNER YESTERDAY SO A LITTLE BIT DISAPPOINTING BUT MANAGED TO COME OUT IN POCKET. THE SIX BETS @£2 MADE A DRAW OF £26 (PROFIT £14).

only going for 2 today.
'mistic man' 3.20 musselburgh
and 'will he wish' 3.50 musselburgh.
Had a nice winner with just one yesterday: 'high ridge' folkestone 15/2
unfortunately I don't always have the time to put them on the forum.
peter b

well done Peter - another 11/1 winner - superb.
I did not back it as I am still observing other systems. Can you post your selections daily?

My system missed the board so far today but a good week ensured.

Hi everyone

It would be so easy if you could back test a concept like both you Peter + Jim are using amalgammating various speed data to proove how effictive it is over a few years and at what price points you get very good strike rates (SR) and returns on investment (ROI).

I wish Inform Racing could provide us a facility so that proto-typing could be done quicker which would allow confidence behind the methodology, as otherwise you have to test the system live over a few months to see if it has any value to then put reasonable stakes on.

Anyway guys well done with your concepts they are working well. Even IR's own system has started to work agsin, today with a nice winner or 2.

Any method that can produce around 25% winners is a good one and can make a reasonable profit. the main thing is you have to limit yourself to selections at 5/1 or more. you may miss a few winners by doing this but if you are going to win over the long term you have to have the discipline. Every method has it's peaks and troughs. As for anylysing past methods over a long period of time past, then I think that this may be not a good idea, because things do change. I have saved a number of methods which I have purchased over the last thirty years and I can assure you that none of them are of any usr in todays racing. I personally think that going back 12 months is quite sufficient.

Peter b

Hi Jim.
I managed to get 15.5 / 1 on Betfair about 'Will He Wish'
I will try and put the main selections on the forum but this is totally dependent on my time and commitments on the day.
Regads
Peter

Great pick again today Peter. Would be interested to know what the level stakes profit is for the last couple of weeks. Like you say, all systems have their ups and downs but you have to stick with them.

The great thing about betting in general, especially in handicaps, is that you really can get some superb prices about horses that do have a good chance. Will He Wish was not an 11/1 shot in my opinion whatever form guide, ratings you use.

Keep it up Peter.

I'm a great believer in having a portfolio of systems up to 10 major ones at any one time to take care of monthly peaks/troughs.

I do agree that many if not all systems do ultimately fail, that is the nature of things that certain underlying issues are no longer valid.

So I also ensure that I monitor all aspects of each and every system I use and as soon as it starts to fail or underperform against the target I either cut back stakes or consider removing from my portfolio altogether.

I am always testing 20-30 new systems at any one time at much smaller stakes (or paper trading) with the objective to include with my major portfolio systems which can take up to a year to reach full staking levels.

Whenever I back test I like to look at 10 years or more data and I ensure that each and every year is profitable otherwise I reject the system. There must be no significant variation in both SR% and ROI% from year to year as this ensures high quality and consistent systems to be adopted.

A LOT OF VERY DIFFICULT RACING TODAY WITH SO MANY POSSIBLES, HOWEVER I THINK
WILD SAVANNAH IN THE 2.05 @ NMKT,
TOUGH LOVE 4.15 THIRSK,
WHINHILL HOUSE 5.20 THIRSK,
BRIANSTA 3.25 GOODWOOD,
HORNPIPE 4.00 GOODWOOD,
BUT THEY ALL NEED THE LUCK IN RUNNING AND PLACE BETS MIGHT THE BEST BETS.
BEST OF LUCK.
P.B.

hI ROB.
i AGREE WITH YOUR APPROACH BUT UNFORTUNATELY i DON'T HAVE THE TIME TO SPEND ON ALL THE SYSTEMS I HAVE SO I JUST HOPE THAT SOME REGULAR PATTERN CAN BE FOUND BY USING THESE EXCELLENT SPEED FIGURES.
GOOD LUCK
PETER B

Hi Peter

Good luck with your efforts, seems you having great success.

Hopefully Inform Racing can produce a facility to backtest ideas using speed figures to the full period that that they have data to allow confidence in staking through rigorous testing. Hope it can be provided soon.

Just posting my ideas for today(sunday).
3.50. Hamilton CRIPSEY BROOK
5.00. Hamilton VIEWFORTH
5.15. Newmarket WUNDERWOOD
5.25. Salisbury BADDAM.

Trying a different tactic this week with my bets,i.e,
If the price on Betfair is over 10/1 then I am doing e/w. and under 10/1 betting as straight win.Still keeping to my 5% of betting bank, increasing after wins and decreasing after losers.


all the luck
p.b.

Hi Peter, well done yesterday, a profit yet again it seems.

Good luck today.

Keith

Hi Peter

Well done with your selections, very nice prices as well.

In the last race at Newmarket I think that Lady H has used Wunderwood to compress the weights to give Tartouche a lighter racing weight in this handicap.

Seb Sanders record on Tartouche is 4 wins and one place from five runs.

Good Luck

Monster

Hi

T******* 5 wins from 7 on UK soil and 3/3 after a long break. 2 defeats in Listed abroad. The only concern would be if it got too firm,I would reduce my stake then,very consistent mare.

Tartouche,typing error

Hi All.
Well! a day to forget. I think the dramatic change in the going at newmarket and hamilton had an effect on the results. I'm surprised that the R/post could be so far out and there must have been a lot of rain for it to have made such a great difference especially at newmarket. I went through the races at 6.00a.m this morning and i've been out most of the day until after racing so I have only just had time to recheck.
M/ster and pytelium, you were right about Tartouche but the odds of 7/4 were not in my price range so I went for the Wunderwood when really I should have left the race alone.
So the book wins the day today. But we live to fight another day.
regards
p.b.

Decided to go for these tonight:
6.10 Ayr YORKIE
7.40 Ayr SOCIETY MUSIC
8.10 Ayr JUBILEE STREET.
6.50 Windsor FEED THE METER.
PETER.B.

Have just seen the that the going at Windsor is now SOFT. This may cause a big problem but I have just changed my bets for the 6.50 to Lets Slip and the 7.20 to Nautical.
p.b.