I would like to be able to run a database query as far back as possible and find a common set of speed ratings matched to various race types and use that to make selections in upcomming races. I would like to break down race categories as follows:-
Turf and AW separate in each case
1. 2YO Stakes Sprints (5-6F)
2. 2YO Stakes 7F and longer
3. 3YO and over Stakes Sprints (5-6F)
4. 3YO and over Stakes Mile (7-9F)
5. 3YO and over Stakes Middle (10-12F)
6. 3YO and over Stakes Staying (13F and over)
7. Handicap Sprints (5-6F)
8. Handicap Mile (7-9F)
9. Handicap Middle (10-12F)
10. Handicap Staying (13F and over)
I would like to see Master, LTO, Avg, M+A, Course and Distance for each.
If this could be further broken down by going (Firm/GF/Good/GS/Soft/Hwavy) on the turf that would be useful as well.
Finally to have everything broken down by course would be excellent as well or have some course classification ie by Grade (1-4), Location (Scotland/North/Midlands/South), Direction (Straight/Left/Right), Surface (Flat/Undulating/Uphill), Speed (Galloping/Stiff/Tight)
All I can check back at present, quickly enough to make it worth doing, is the winning rating I gave each race. I added the 'average ratings' addition last week but know it needs adjusting and am looking at doing that soon.
I will try to divide races up a bit more, although I'm not sure that by race distance would help that much as I allow for %of a mile each race is over and calculate this into a rating.
I think that once we have these details, you should be able to say a horse that hasn't scored x for a particular race within the last 12 months (master frating) shouldn't be able to win.
To find all master, lto etc ratings as you would like, you will have to look back at all past results manually.
I look forward to what you will come up with and see what help it can give in evaluating the runners for that race based on historic data. Do you not have data more than 12 months, I thought the service has been going for 3 years?
I have all data back to the start of 2002, you can see this on older horses Race Form tables, but I am just saying how far do you want to check back a horses old form and consider it worthy? I say a year is about right and this is what the Master rating is, the best figure acheieved in the last 12 months. If you want to go back further you can check a horses form on the Race Form tables.
I'm looking at it from a different angle, I would like to identify the profile in terms of the various speed ratings what could win a race based on historic data for a race type and be able to compoute the Strike Rate %age and Rate of Return %age. so for example in a 4YO+ Handicap at Warwick 30% winners came from a profile of M+A 150 and above, Avg 80 etc... from this systems can be built up.
