Hi all, I joined Inform Racing a couple of months ago and thought I'd post my thoughts. I hope the profits are coming in for you all.
I always seem to find myself looking at the best three the last time out and think that as the season gets going this will provide a lot of winners although sometimes there are more than three to look at. I have been backing the horses at decent odds from these best 'three or so' horses and have picked up some good winners lately. Yesterday had a 25/1 and 14/1 winner as well as a few losers and a couple of others in the last week or so at 16/1 and 10/1 which does make it all worth while. I'm not a great fan of backing horses at short odds myself but I know that others do and good luck to you if you do. If you do, it does seem that on quite a few occassions horses that are fancied, say 9/4 forecast price or less, do go on to win if they are also one of the top two rated in the Master rating column, especially in smallish fields (8-12) and on many occasions in Maiden races. I have noticed also that fancied horses that are not particularly highly rated can win (Tagula Blue and Greenwich Meantime yesterday) so beware if you lay horses on the exchanges with these.
As I say I think the summer will provide much better racing and would like to ask would it be possible if the past results pages could go back a bit further at all? This way we could see last years summer results and base some decisions on these perhaps.
Good luck and well done if you are winning. I enjoy reading the posts on the forum and would encourage more chat in the future.
Keith
Interesting observations there.
I would also like to be able to view past results for a longer time period: this will help to be able to test systems and ideas more thoroughly.
Can this be provided Ian?
Just to add to my point the other day, I think that backing the better priced horses that are one of the top three rated last time out could pay dividends. There may be a few losers but I had Balloura today at 16/1 and it seems the form is settling in a bit looking at todays results.
Incidentally, is anyone backing the top rated total course and distance winners? Golden Square won at 16/1 today as well as Oceancookie at 8/1. Haven't checked all the results but again at decent prices this may pay too. It would be interesting to see if the course and distance figures that make a horse top rated on this count make any difference compared to the ratings of the other horses in the race.
For example if a horse has a top course and distance figure of 80 and no other horses in the race have managed say 75 in their last three runs it should be a good bet. On the other hand if the figures are 75 and a lot of the horses have recently scored 80 is it still worth a bet?
Lots of interesting points to think about.
Good luck and well done Jim today. Anybody else hiding any good systems?!
Keith
well done with the big priced ones.
I did start to do an analysis of those in the top 3 LTO that were 10/1 or bigger at SP. The problem with all systems that look at bigger priced selections is that you have to be able to cope with long losing runs.I only got as far as looking at a couple of weeks in January. Sounds like there have been some good priced ones in the last week or two though.
I havent looked at the combined course and distance figures. That is an interesting angle. My system looks at those which have the absolute top figure on both course and distance.
Your point about margin of superiority is interesting.
I have other systems which use this angle. for example I used to look at selections which were at least 10 points clear of the next on Topspeed or RPR ratings where most in the field had a rating. You have to wait for selections but alongside a lot of odds on jollies you get very high strike rates and a few good priced ones.
I will have a look at the figures on here to see if there is any system that might be worth following relating to margin of superiority eg at least five points clear on any of the columns or specific ones.
A great day for the last time out horses with Quantume Leap 12/1 and Pippas Dancer 14/1 (nearly through the card at Kempton tonight). No really short priced ones either. What I like was the two that were well clear on last time out ratings both won by 5 lengths.
Looks like the All Weather will be worth following for this method at least.
Incidentally apart from one, all other Kempton last time out winners were off the track for no more than 30 days which is what a lot of people base their thoughts on with flat racing which is quite interesting.
Going great guns, keep up the good work everyone.
Just to add to my post on another topic, I have been backing the top three or so rated last time out at decent odds (backing the ones not too short to make a profit on a race).
Lately as you can see I have backed some great winners and yesterday, on what was not a great day and very difficult I think, I still made about 15 points profit with a Mutamared 12/1 winner, Illustrious Blue 14/1 winner, Wild Savannah 11/2 winner and Matsunosuke 6/1 winner, all better odds on the exchanges too. Obviously I had a lot of losing races as well and Gallantry battled on just too late beaten a neck I think at 20/1. Would have been nice.
This is not all posted so as to gloat but to put forward a method that has paid dividends for me that others may be able to use.
Best of luck
Keith
Has anyone tried to filter down the 3 top LTO to one or two selections.???.....e.g....does the BEST LTO horse do better than the SECOND BEST /etc......or are all 3 about the same.
Hi Dylan, I am basing my betting on this system and doing very well so far. I change my method slightly to how I feel on the day but backing these top 3 rated horses using the bet calculator sometimes, has paid dividends although I do often bet odds on this way.
It is best probably to wait until your odds for each horse are bigger than the number of bets but I also increase my stake after three losers and don't normally have to do this too often as a winner is found in a high percentage of races.
Regarding your 28 day rule, this may be another thread, I don't see it this way. I think that wether it is 3days ago or 133 days ago it is still the horses last peice of form. Maybe I'm wrong but there are lots of points of view.
To me distance doesn't matter.
Keith
KEITH....Thanks for all of that.......will have a check back over previous results and sort out a method of backing 1 2 or 3.
Hi
Well I have been using the ratings for a couple of weeks and as yet I do not have a system or a real plan, but I generally take each race in isolation.
Some of the things I have used the ratings for are
Dutching - I have been dutching upto 5 in a race and this week I have had Fangom Forest 14/1, petite Mac 16/1 Stanley Wolfe 25/1 and a lot more at lower prices (all bigger on BF which makes backing 5 OK). any shorter price horses that qualify are either smaller losers on the book or stake recoveries.
Place Laying - Had good success with this (from a limited trial) but I look for shorter prices horses say 4/1-8/1 range and place lay on the exchanges where there are a high number of better rated horses in the race.
Laying - Stepping away from laying as I cannot make it pay, but with the ratings I am trying to spot weak favourites to take on.
No real systems as yet but plenty of profit in the bank and I definately am going to extend my months trial to a full membership.
Hi Stuart I am glad you are having success.
I think the way the ratings best work for me and a lot of people find themselves betting this way too, is to use them for finding the bigger priced horses that the speed ratings point out and as you do use a dutching method. Horses that have a good Master rating, Lto rating, a good rating two or three runs ago, course, distance form etc that are priced up at 10/1 or bigger can all be backed and I have found give great long term profit, especially with the prices on Betfair.
Looking at the ratings you get to see that sometimes there is not a great deal of difference in past or recent ratings between a 2/1 shot or a 10/1 shot for example. Its not always the case of course but over the long term can pay to ignore the shorter priced horses. Not a great example, but last night George The Best was 5/2 and Taboor was 5/1 with only one point better rating last time out for the shorter of the two, making it worth backing Taboor, especially as his Master rating was the same as the distance and going of the race (5f GS). In fact looking at the conditions of the recent races and Master ratings of the horses yesterday would have helped find a few winners with the going being soft and this may be worth checking in future when the going is similar or worse to see how a horse has faired. Akarem's best rating was acheived over the same distance (1m 4f) and on Heavy ground, the only horse apart from Profits reality with any recent form on soft going and won at 20/1 last night.
Other ways of finding winners for me is looking for top 3 rated last time out that finished out of the frame as this can often give a much better price than if the horses had finished first or second. Prime Powered finished 5th last time out beaten about 5 lengths but was best rated last time out and won at 15/2 yesterday, forecast at 14/1 and another simple method, as someone else pointed out on another thread, backing a horse well rated from one of its last three runs at big prices can really pay off too, no matter how long ago the form of the race actually was.
Ian.
