I like the look of the the new class ratings . Yesterday i was doubling the rating figures and comparing them to the master + average. I then added 2 points for every tick given to the qualifying horses in the racing post postdata to come up with a final figure. This found Lake wakatipu at 16/1 , miss glory be at 6/1 and juniper girl at 5/1 so not a bad day on 7 races i had a bet on. Could i just ask which figure you used for the class ratings.Many thanks
Hi Peter, can you let me know what figures you mean for the class ratings? I took all the winning ratings for every class, 1 to 7 and for each age group, 2yo, 3yo and older horses as well as Listed and Group races. I eliminated any ratings that were a lot lower or higher than the bulk of results to give the lower and higher figures the took the average.
sorry nick,
i didnt read your message until this evening.I did have 2 winners onlytimewilltell at4.4 and merlins profit at 5.9. i am still fine tuning and although i have had a good few days it could go **** up at any time so i dont want to waste your hard earned. i do feel happier that the system works better on all-weather where of course speed ratings should come into there own with true run races. i have read that speed figures work well on galloping courses. any idea which courses would fit into that category anyone. if i continue to see a profit then i dont mind giving out tips but lets just see how it pans out for week or so. I will be looking at kempton tomorrow which i am a little unsure of due to its lack of stats.
Hi I an ,
sorry i didnt explain myself to well earlier,to busy crowing about yesterdays result.
what i wanted to know was which figures ie master,lto average,m+av you based your class ratings on
thanks.
ps i do believe the info you compile here is invaluable, it is just a matter of fine tuning and a little work from all of us and i think we can be on to a really good thing here
Hi Peter, the winning ratings that I have recently added are the actual winning ratings that the horse whoi won each particular race, going by age and class was given. I would suggest that a horse would have to have scored this rating in the last twelve months to have a chance of winning the particular race so probably best to go on Master Ratings.
I will be looking at improving these tables in the near future dividing them into Maidens, sellers etc and giving the percentage of each winning rating. For example if I have 500 races for 3yo class 5 handicaps and in 100 of them I had rated the winner at 77 I would show that horses that had scored a rating of 77 had won 20% of this type of race. This may allow you to elimante any winning rating under 10% or so.
Would this help? I would be glad to hear how I could show these past winning ratings more effectively.
Hi nick,
didnt do well yesterday, but i am not confident with kempton yet, i dont think any one is. havent done any selections today but back in the saddle tomorrow.
I am finding that a horse has to be more than 4 points ahead in my rating to warrant a bet.Iam now leaving races alone where the ratings are close unless there is enough value to select more than one horse.
