Hi all,
Does anybody have a simple system to follow that actually produces regular winners.I've been trying out the ones suggested on the site but im losing more than im winning.Any help would be much appreciated.
Thanks,
Brian

I have spent years developing and testing systems for horse racing. I have always been a fan of the intelligent use of speed ratings. I only discovered inform last week and have been testing a few ideas for systems based on the very useful facility of having all of the past racecards and ratings with the results added in. You can test out lots of ideas for yourself with this data.
You might like to try this one.
1. In the racecard the horse must have the top rating ( or joint top rated) for both course AND distance.
2. It must be in the top three ratings last time out LTO.
This ensures that we have a horse that has proven its speed in the same circumstances and the LTO rating shows us it is currently fit to do the job again.

The other filter which I would apply to my own analysis would be the going which I believe is crucial. Many of the results in the last few months are from the all weather where obviously the going does not vary so much as on turf. However,just using the two filters suggested above has shown a profit in each of Jan, Feb, Mar, and April this year. In fact almost 100 points profit on 200 + selections.
This week Monday would have given you two winners from five, including Sunderland Echo at 10/1 and Lake W at 16/1. Tuesday just Black Beauty winning at 15/8 from four selections and today just the short priced Toy Top winning from three selections (Impeller 2nd and Cape Royal 2nd). Still 20 points profit on the week so far.

I only finalised this system on Monday night so missed backing these nice priced winners.

The strike rate varies from 25% to 33% most weeks.
Tomorrow offers just one qualifier at Beverley- Paris Heights should be a decent price in the 4.50

Hope this proves useful.

Jim

Jim
You are certainly on the right track.Are your results to sp or betfair?

I calculated my figures to SP results and do not know what the relevant Betfair figures would be. My experience is that you can get 10 or 20% better prices or even more on the bigger priced ones, but very similar to SP on anything short.
To give you a more accurate picture it is about 96 points profit from about 240 selections on my analysis from January to early April this year

For some examples look at the 11th April
Bath 3.10 Acrobatic Top rated Course and Distance and top rated LTO. won at a short 4/7
On the same day four selections at Lingfield
2.30 Mary Delaney top rated by 3 points for Course AND for distance. 2nd top on LTO . WON 5/1
3.00 Hadatth = 4th
4.00 Titus Lumpus and Cheveley Flyer - joint top rated on both C + D with both on 71 for both. Joint 2nd rated LTO. Result - WON at 12/1 and 5th.


Then last week Speciosa WON at 9/1

This week winners on Monday at 10/1 and 16/1.

April is showing over 40 points profit from 70 or so selections using this simple system

Unlucky today with the selection but its good to see the past results getting put to use.

If I ever get close to finding any sort of method I think the next step is to whittle it down whilst trying to keep most of the winners however it is good that your system has plenty of selections too. Have you any stats for backing the selections each way?

The one thing people do wrong in my opinion is try and back a horse in every race. You simply won't win this way.

Jim

Do you mind putting you selections on the forum for the next few days?

Thanks

Nick

JUST SEEN THE MESSAGE

Not many selections the last couple of days
yesterday York Cliff ( 2nd)

today Soapy Dancer - turned over at 4/7
Jadalee - lost ( despite good reports from stable and Frankie Dettori on board)
Beneking has just lost at Wolver

So not too good.

But selections in every remaining race at Wolverhampton

7.30 Glenviews Youngone
8.00 Bijou Dan
8.30 Scotland Yard
8.55 Magical M
9.20 York Cliff ( turned out again quickly after yesterdays race and counts on the system again)

Hope for some more winners here

Jim

thats better - Glenviews Youngone and Bijou Dan both winning at Wolver in the last half hour - about five points profit.

Jim

Good luck with the last two Jim. Will back them myself. Not a great day all round for me but I think it is a bit early in the season and the form is not settled yet.

Do you back your selections in all races ie maidens etc?

Lady Taverner in the last is a close selection what about backing two in a race?

Missed that one! No one told me it was off at 8.55!!

Well done Jim.

This system was just the most promising one that I tested. Bear in mind that I only discovered the Inform figures a couple of weeks ago and did the research to produce these figures about a week ago.
I have followed them for the last week and they have produced a reasonable profit this week again, suggesting that this system might be worht following.
I have started to back them in the last few days.
I would exclude a lot of maidens, particularly if there are a lot of newcomers. However, if most of them have experience and the figures for course and distance are very good I will back in maidens too.

As for backing two in a race I worked out the figures based on the highest rated over course and distance and then top 3 LTO. If two were joint top rated over C+D I included both. I am sure that it makes sense to back two if they are very close on the figures but I worked out my figures based on the absolute top rated or joint top rated.

I find that it helps to keep systems simple.

Three winners tonight at Wolver meant a profit on the day.

I will keep posting the selections.

Jim

Jim

Thanks for this just looked at the forum 10:20 so missed all the selections but good to see them in profit for you.

If you could continue to post that would be great.

Thanks

Nick

This system seems to produce 25- 33% winners most weeks and , with the occasional losing week,runs of steady profit most weeks.
Results from this week are:


Results based on Top Rated for Course AND Distance and top 3 LTO

Mon 24th L 7/2 Merlins P
L9/1 Wanna Shout
Won 16/1 Lake Waikatapu
L4/1 Joking J
Won 10/1 Sunderland Echo

Tues 25th L9/1 Venetian R
5th 20/1 Skin Sure Thing
L15/1 Mount Royale
Won 15/8 Black Beauty

Weds 26th 2nd 4/1 Cape Royal
2nd11/2 Impeller
Won 11/8 Toy top
3rd 11/1 High Point

Thurs 27th L 11/1 Paris Heights

Saturday 29th L4/7 Sopay Dancer
L4/1 Jadalee
L9/2 Beneking
Won 5/2 Glenviews Youngone
Won 11/4 Bijou Dan
2nd7/4 Scotland Yard
Won 11/8 Magical Music
2nd 7/2 York Cliff


7 winners from 22 = 32% . Profit of 21 points.

Just the one selection at Brighton today - Jools in the 3.20 . Racing Post says :Badly lost his form after winning at Windsor in June but dropped to a 5lb lower mark now and hints from a couple of his runs on the Polytrack latterly (a surface he´s never seemed to appreciate) that he´s not a lost cause; one to consider with trip/ground ideal.

The bare system gives the following for tomorrow, Monday

Kempton 2.40 Flying Pass
Newcastle 4.15 European dream
Windsor 2.00 Espartano
Windsor 2.30 Danawi

I would not back the last named, Danawi, as a perusal of its form ,with a few second places and comments like 'found nil' , suggest it has no acceleration in a finish, despite having good figures overall.

the other three look like good bets.

Jim

Good start Jim - they all count.

Bring on the next!!

50% on the day, or 66% as you said leave danawi alone!! Top of the class Jim.

Good start to the week jim.

Jim,just letting you know that two of your selections where clear top rated and two where joint top rated in the racing posts RPR column which would probably be a good indication aswell to the horses ability.

Yes, another good start to a week.
The only downside is that I have just done a quick analysis of the results from the backend of last season,now that more past results are on the site.

October showed a loss of about 1 point.
November showed a loss of 9 or 10 points. there were a lot of placed horses and none of the winners were at really decent prices.

this just illustrates the truth that all systems have ups and downs. My own strategy is to use systems as a guide and not be a slave to them. Each race and selection should be analysed on merit and that is why, for example I would not have touched Danawi today as a betting proposition.

Jim

Hey don't bring us down Jim!

Look on the bright side, maybe the ratings have been tweaked a little since last year!

Any for tomorrow? Cheers mate.

Hi Jim.
All that work you have done is excellent and you may definitely be on the right lines. I prefer to call it a methodical approach, as systems seems to be to strict a criteria. One of the things I do is stick to all age handicaps because most of the horses have been there and done it before, if they haven't, then it's highly likely that they never will. The way I do it is by a methodical approach to the advanced search on the site. i.e.
ALL AGE HANDICAPS ONLY.
CHECK ADVANCED SEARCH AND MAKE A NOTE OF TOP 3.
CHECK TO SEE IF THEY ARE TOP 3 MASTER RATED OR TOP 3 RATED L T O.
PUT IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE RACE I.E DISTANCE, GOING,
CLASS,AND 1-12 MONTHS. AND THEN THE 'GO' BUTTON.
THIS SHOULD THEN REVEAL A NEW LIST FOR THE RACE.
LOOK AT THE TOP TWO ON THE LIST AND THEN CHECK TO SEE IF THEY ARE IN THE TOP 3 MASTER RATINGS OR TOP 3 LTO RATING. MINIMUM BET PRICE 5/1. (I USE BETFAIR)
TO DAY THERE HAVE BEEN 3 BETS:
I.E. WATERSIDE 5.55 KEMP 6/1 ( I.E. 1M, SD, 1-12MTHS,
TOP 3 MASTER RATED, TOP 3 RATED, LTO).
MISS PROVIDENCE 3.35 WINDSOR 6/1
JUDD STREET 4.40 WINDSOR. 11/2.