if a horse has done it before there is know reason why he cant do it again
today in 3.15 RYDENES done it before
and rydenes goes and wins @6/1
it got all the ticks in right places
We should have got together - I thought Hansomis had all the ticks in the right places - it would have been a nice F/C and even the third Distant Vision at 50/1 had some chance on the figures and we could have skinned the bookies for the Tricast - ah well, we live in hope.
MIKE T
HANSOMIE did has never won in may that was the only neg
but the other horse a load of negatives
0/4 distran 8th 5th 3rd 8th
0/12 on going
class 0/18
OR 0/15
has run in 12 runner race 12 times no wins
not won in may
0/17 on straight crs
i know it seems a lot to check but thats what i do
especialy in hcps
if you stick to hcps at 4yo or higher age you have all the horses stats
i tend to keep to that age also 13 runners would be my highest number of runners in a race
you have all the stats in inform
switch on the form
then switch on the heading where it says finished you can click mouse on the little upside down little arrows and you can see what races they have won and all the form for horses
after that check trn i like trn to have a 10% win at crs this also applys to jck
then check to see if trn in form
once you done that you will either find a winner of the race or you might find the favourite is worth laying
so my advice study the hcps believe me with Ians info you have got a lot of info
i hope this helps you, if anyone else has a good
contructive crytisym or advice put me right
to give you an idea of all ticks
to-night 8.25 thirsk
i believe that ROYAL SWAN will run well but i wont bet it because
Not won race class
and has not won OR
Excellent reply and thanks for the additional info. I must admit to giving a lot of weight to Hansomis' two course wins. I shall certainly take your advice on board.
MIKE T
thanks for your reply if you look at a post asking about 4.45 carlisle
i said the horse that was being asked about had some negatives
i also mentioned a horse EL DECENCY which just failed on a neg it finished 3rd at 14/1
I've only been doing these for a few days, so still finding my way around, but I'm certainly with you on sorting by finishing position and looking at the conditions under which a horse has won.
I tend to extend that to being close up (what I refer to as showing ability to win). I'm never keen on taking any rating figure (of any description) from a race where a horse has finished down the field.
I shall work harder tonight to become more selective.
MIKE T
it looks like your really trying i will tyr and help you
today there is 13 hcps to look at they are in time order
2.40 rip
3.40 rip
3.50 chep
4.10 rip
4.20 chep
4.30 ling AW
5.30 ling AW
6.20 hunt
6.50 hunt
8.05 hex
8.35her
8.50 hunt
9.05 hex
leave out the LING races as they are all weather races
if any of the above races has less than 6 runners or more than 12 runners leave them alone
if you want to narrow the races down more pick the better class races
i used to only concentrate on class 4 and above but now i do all hcps
i leave apprentice and amature races alone
give it a go and if you want put your selections up
and ask people what they think
there is a few people who im sure can point you in the right direction
what ever they say take it in
listen and learn
no person that i know has learnt it all we still looking for an edge
i had a tutor he was an accountant but boy could he read a form book, this was before we had computers
but with the computers i found that its a bit easier you can study more races
my advice is paper trade first and put down what you would have betted on
start with £100 and use £2 stakes work on this untill you have had a 100 bets and then see how you get on
they must be level bets you can have say .50 win and 1.50 place
the spreadsheet i advice to get is called BET RECORDER its free and it tells you everything you want to know
ie wins% pl% ave amount of bets per race ave odds per race plus running total and above all its FREE
i think thats about it for now, at moment im living in turkey which means im 2 hours in front of your time
today i wont be betting im off to a market
I also advice you to become a free member of ATR at the races
reason you can watch the race a couple of minutes after the race has been run, you will learn a lot from this you can also study a race narrow the field down switch on a recorded race that they have run in and see if you can either discard **** or put it on the short list
i cant do this in turkey reason it wont get on my computer
the first jockey to start riding for the finish will 8/10 not win
look at the jck who is just sitting quitely on the horse he generally has a good chance of winning
a horse can lose a race from the start this is an art that a jck does connections want do horse for another day
also if a top jck is on a horse who has not really achieved much, connections have put the jk up for info they will pay jck above riding fees for this
that it for now have fun and try and be one of the low % winners
What can I say? Thanks for the input and the guidelines, it is much appreciated. I've got to drive to London very shortly for a couple of meetings and won't be back until tomorrow, so if you don't hear from me I'm not ignoring you.
Out of the 4 flat rcaes this afternoon that I would have looked at more closely I've manged to go through one, and fancy the chances of BILLY DANE in the 3:40 at Ripon.
Didn't last the 10F at Ripon LTO and nothing in its form suggested it would, so I would question why the trainer gave it that run.
I can't get excited about the F/C Fav OFF CHANCE which Spotlight in the RP Naps, it seems to have more to do today even with its C/D win.
I'm sure there's loads of factors I've missed out on (I'm still digesting the info you have provided), but that's a start made.
