My main selection today :- Tiger Hawk 6:50 Southwell 9/2 £10 win bet

small handicap selections/ none betting
4:00 Beverley Bolondenka 14/1 E/w
6:20 Southwell Anjomarba 3/1 Win
3:40 Warwick Transfixed 20/1 E/w

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Any Suggestions

Roedhelm

The stand out bet for me today was Elusive Fame 7.50 Southwell. I thought it should have gone off favorite, if it had i'd probably have not backed it. It won like an odds on shot, have a look at the racecard and its speeds and see what you think, does it stand out to you as a good bet in hindsight?

Good Evening Beetlesheen,
master 84, carrying 3lbs more but young enough to improve, lto 82 in a class 3 so improvement on the previous run of 72, also dropping in class today, Highest rated on the M&A 162, C+D Ratings, +VDW Ratings YES Sir A Full House.
The thing that threw me out on this selection was it Last won in November of a mark of 68, todays rating was 76, I there for thought it was not making its winning rate?
Regards Roedhelm

Yes its last winning mark was 68 and its previos best was 72 both at Southwell coincidentially, however the important thing for me was its LTO speed off the same mark as today and over 7f. As you quite rightly point out it is only a 4 year old so may still be open to improvement, but the horse has shown that at southwell over a similar trip off todays mark it didnt have to improve to have the rest of the field beaten, and so it proved.

Thank you for putting me straight again, I did spend alot of time last night & this morning, I think I may of been looking too deep into the stats & totaly over looking the obvious.
York on Friday, would like to have an enjoyable but understandable day.
Thank you Beetlesheen

Roedhelm,
I couldn't work out your selection of Bolondenka in the 4.00 at Beverley.
I backed Celtic Change in that race as this was a C&D winner, won off 78 and was now on an OR of 79. I discounted the recent run at Haydock as it was the first race back after a layoff, and the run before that was a Class 2 race where this was a Class 4 race. Admittedly, odds were only 5/1 but it provided a good return.
I didn't see anything in Bolondenka's form to make it worthwhile looking at.

That said, I backed Clear Ice in the 6.20 at Southwell and Hidden Glory in the 3.40 at Warwick, so it's not all good news !

Sometimes I think that "a little knowledge" is a dangerous thing, as suddenly you start to look too deeply to try to find things that aren't always there.

hi Gibbers, If you don't mind I will post you tomorrow on why I selected Bolondenka & the others as I have put together a check/tick list to try & sort things out, unfortunately my check list is at work, but I will post my reasons to you.
Kind Regards
Roedhelm