Goodwood 4.10 Thunderous Mood
Chester 5.05 Norwegian Dancer.

Count

Have I got the gist of things here???
Regards Roedhelm

Thunderous mood isnt the same horse back on turf as the speeds tell you nor well handicapped in a very competative race, the M&A ratings can be misleading as in this case i thought the race was horrendous for punting and this early in the season you really do need to be waiting for standouts, use the from guide as well. @ 5/2 it was a bad bet in my view.

Norweigian Dancer had a great chance and i have no comment to make only that again the race was very competative on a race track where luck in running in a field that big is a major factor.

If your backing a horse in handicap it has to have a big edge over the others and if can find them at value 5/1 and bigger youll make it pay, always avoid the ones that have been running well for while as its these that will be favs or close to fav and ones to avouid as thier exposed. Look for improvers or back class which are overlooked by the odds compilers. You need to flow against the tide which means backing horses with so called appauling form especially over jumps as any horse can win if handicapped to do so if the horse is being taken to a racecourse then theres nothing wrong with it.

Thanks Once Again Count, I hope you dont mind me asking you for your advice, as I said in one of my earlier posts, I am going to York races next friday, with the advice your giving I will have more of a chance of better selections.

Patience is a virtue Roedhelm, If you are prepared to wait for betting opportunities you will have no problem making a profit from racing. In my opinion you need to be looking for horses that are

1/ Race Fit.
2/ Proven on the track, ground and distance.
3/ Back down to a winning handicap mark.
4/ LTO speeds suggest they are coming to hand.

Horses that comply with the above and are a decent price don't come along every day, so you need to be very disciplined.

would you say a horse is fit if he ran within say 30 days.

Yes, providing it didn't finish lame

winning handicape mark as that got to be below its last winning handicap mark or a pound or two over.

sorry for picking your brains beetlsheen but if you dont ask you dont learn

This is great guys, Thank you all very much, I am so glad Ian re launched the Forum, we should all be able to give a leg up here & there.
A BIG THANKS
Regards Roedhelm

Exactly what a winning mark is depends to certain extent on the horse. A young horse that is still open to some improvement could be considered if it is a pound or two above its best winning mark, whereas a old exposed horse may need to be well below its best proven mark. Dont get me wrong, horse can and do win every day that are well above their previous best mark, but what we are trying to do here is reduce the amount of losing bets and leaving little to chance. Never write off a horses chances of winning because of its recent form, a horse only becomes well handicapped by running poorly, and trainers know this too well.

You also need to be aware of how well/poorly handicapped all the other runners in a race are. You may find a horse that is considered 'well in' in a race from my earlier criteria, but it is of no use if half of the field are also equally well in. And by the same token a race may contain one horse that is not exactly well handicapped, but it is not far from but the remainder of the field are well in the grip of the handicapper. Racing is exceedingly challenging but by backing the correct horses and having the patience of a saint you can make it pay. Please bear in mind that these criteria really only apply to handicap races!!!

Thanks Beetlesheen.
Kind Regards Roedhelm