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Re: National Hunt 30 Apr

Thank you Roedhelm for your encouragement.
Another day, another dollar.
More qualifiers than usual today mainly because there are a few more meetings and two can be discounted fairly quickly because they are obvious odds on shots (Saucy Buck and Mister Hughie).

The qualifiers are :

Ches 2.45 Munsef
Ches 3.15 Falasteen
Hamn 7.15 Il Portico
Hamn 7.50 Danderek
Hamn 8.20 Powerful Pierre
Ripn 5.55 Saltergate
Ripn 6.55 Brierty
Ripn 7.30 Rosbay
Ripn 8.00 Bonheurs Art
Aint 6.05 Araldur

I never bet more than £30 a day so with so many qualifiers I have to scale down the individual bets.

£1 ew on Munsef(12/1), Rosbay (8/1) and Araldur(6/1)
£2 win on Brierty(7/2), Danderek(10/3) and Powerful Pierre(11/4)
£3 win on Falasteen(9/4) and Il Portico(9/4)
£4 win on Saltergate(6/4)
£5 win on Bonheurs Art(11/8)

Total staked = £27

Re: National Hunt 30 Apr

Just a quick update on yesterday which was poor to say the least. However, Bonheurs Art paid £11.88, Saltergate was withdrawn which meant £4 back in the kitty and Rosbay finished 2nd at 10/1 to return £3.
Total Staked yesterday = £27
Total winnings = £18.88
Loss on day = £8.12

Total Staked so far = £194.50
Total winnings so far = £269.38
Total Profit so far = £74.88

I wasn't very happy with yesterday because I had too many qualifiers using my points system. I need to take note of some of the things I've been reading in the forum to narrow down my qualifiers to a select few and maybe we will have more success. Concentrating on certain types of races seems to be a viable avenue. I'm sure some of you out there will have suggestions. Let's hear them please.

Re: National Hunt 30 Apr

Today's qualifiers are :

Ling 2.40 Timepiece
Asct 2.20 Barshiba
Asct 2.50 Alsace Lorraine
Thir 6.05 Bonnie Prince Blue
Warw 6.50 My Mate Max
Hexm 5.00 Soulard
Hayd 4.10 Cool Friend
Hayd 5.20 Lady Luachmhar

Alsace Lorraine, My Mate Max and Lady Luachmhar are in handicaps so I am going to overlook them. I will also discard Timepiece as he is odds on. That leaves the following:

Barshiba 3/1
Soulard 11/8
Bonnie Prince Charlie 11/4
Cool Friend 5/2

£5 win on each - £20 staked

Re: National Hunt 30 Apr

Northender, I don't bet on races with more than 12 runners, if that helps you to narrow down your selections. I don't rule out handicaps personally, but understand the reasons to exclude those as well.

Good luck !

Re: National Hunt 30 Apr

Thanks, Gibbers, for your contribution. It is much appreciated. Looking back through past postings to other forumites, I liked what Beetlesheen posted on 6th May (Under 6th May Selections - Roedhelm). He said that horses should be:
a) Race fit (14, 21 or 28 days cut off???)
b) Proven on Course, distance and going
c) In handicaps, back down to a winning mark
d) Last time out speed rating suggests horse is coming to hand

If I add your suggestion,
e) Only choose races which have less than 12 runners

then this should throw up less qualifiers but certainly better qualifiers.
I will list the qualifiers as usual but then rule out those that don't fulfil the above set of rules for my bet(s).

Yesterday was a case of even stevens with the bets - £20 staked and £20 returned - although two of the qualifiers that were ruled out won at 6/1 and 2/1 (morning prices). Not to worry. No bets today as it was a 'my wife' day visiting garden centres and the like so no time to analyse or post until now.

Present situation is as follows:

Total Stakes = £214.50
Total Winnings = £289.38
Profit = £74.88

Re: National Hunt 30 Apr

Hi Northender, £74 profit to £214 staked sounds like a pretty good return so far !

To your query on being "race fit" - I personally look for 28 days or less, but know of others that use 14 days as a rule. Certainly I wouldn't go higher.

For what it is worth, I also generally ignore maidens, although "paper-trading" using the speed ratings shows that it is not as dangerous as I once thought !

Re: National Hunt 30 Apr

Thanks again for the reply. Not being well up on these matters, can you explain what you mean by 'paper trading'?

Re: National Hunt 30 Apr

Morning Northender,
I could be wrong but I think " Paper Trading " means being well supported in the betting ( actively backed )
Good Luck
Regards Roedhelm

Re: National Hunt 30 Apr

Thanks, Roedhelm. That makes sense and I understand what Gibbers means. I found it very interesting reading your thread this morning and what The Count has said about Seven of Diamonds.

Seven of Diamonds is one of my qualifiers today and it posted its best speed figure over 6f which is over today's distance. The last time out weaker speed figure was over 5f. I'm prepared to bet on him today each way even though The Count will probably be proved right as his considerable knowledge far outweighs mine.

Today's qualifiers are :

Brig 2.10 Scarlet Rocks
Brig 3.10 Brannagh
Brig 4.10 Blue Tango
Redc 3.20 Seven of Diamonds
Redc 4.20 Cawdor
Redc 5.20 Buzz Bird
Towc 7.30 Midnight Spirit

If I stick to my new criteria, I will have only one bet and that will be £5 ew Seven of Diamonds.
The reasons for discarding the others are:
Scarlet Rocks - odds on - no bet
Brannagh - not proven on course and going
Blue Tango - raised 4lbs since last run, run well at Brighton but never won on good going
Cawdor - best performances on Good and Soft - today is good to firm.
Buzz Bird - 14 runners - run poorly the two occasions he has run at Redcar - best on all weather.
Midnight Spirit - 15 runners - has been raised 8lbs for first career win at Chepstow - run well on many occasions over this course and distance and should run well but probably without winning.

Seven of Diamonds is the bet although it has run 6 times - 4th every time but race fit, run well over course, distance and going and speed figure best over 6f rather than 5f.

I've probably dug myself into a hole but I'm sure you forumites will dig me out.

Re: National Hunt 30 Apr

Sorry, "paper trading" just means not to actually bet your own real money, but put an 'imaginary' £1 on it and monitor the result. Do this for a few days or weeks to check that your system is working and if so, then carry on with your actual cash, if not, then you haven't lost anything and can adjust your system as you see fit until it is returning a healthy profit at a healthy win rate.

Looks like today's selections haven't been too good

From your list I also had Cawdor and Blue Tango. Oh well.

Re: National Hunt 30 Apr

Thanks once again for responding and for explaining 'paper trading' for me. I understand the usefulness of doing what you suggest and I will incorporate it into my mode of betting.

After all I have put down in recent posts - viz. not to bet in races with 12 or more runners - I never realised that by backing Seven of Diamonds I was doing just that. Talk about being blinkered. Anyway it served me right and £10 was frittered away by my oversight. Plus it proved The Count right in his analysis of such a bet in his post to Roedhelm this morning. I hold my hand up.

Re: National Hunt 30 Apr

I'm going to end this thread in order to start a new one incorporating some of the ideas that I've picked up from many of the forumites out there. Thanks for all your help so far and for the snippets of knowledge I've gleaned from your helpful posts.

End result:
Total stakes - £224.50
Total winnings - £289.38
Total Profit - £64.88

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