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| Viewing Page 1 of 1 (Total Posts: 7) |
| Author | Comment |
peter bentley
 Jul 6, 06 - 8:44 PM |
past results check
I don't know whether anyone is interested or the following info is of any use to anyone but I only bet in All Age Handicaps. I have done past results check on the last 216 all age handicap races ( excluding amateurs and ladies and apprentices) and this showed the following stats: top 3 rated = 127 winners top 3 last time out = 129 winners run in last 15 days = 131 winners top 3 average = 117 winners top 3 master + average = 123 winners top 3 course = 80 winners top 3 distance = 106 winners. It goes a little way to pinpoint the best ratings to use to produce winners. the least influencial are the course and distance figures. The most influencial without doubt are the days since last run and the top 3 rated and the top 3 last time out rated and have produced 58 winners from the races where they have fallen together (26.5% strike rate). Using this appraoch there could be some races where there is more than qualifier but this can be restricted by using a maximum s.p and/or using only horses that are in the first 6 in the betting. It is fact that 85% of winners come from the first six in the betting and only about 30% of favourites win, which would it seems point to quite a lucrative 55% from the 3,4,5,6 in the betting. Regards Peter b. 
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taff
Jul 6th, 2006 - 9:21 PM |
Re: past results check
interesting pete i also like to concentrate on handicaps looks well worth looking into cheers |
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Monster
Jul 7th, 2006 - 8:23 PM |
Re: past results check
Hi Peter Nice research. Have you tried Days since last run and only those whose LTO odds were from odds on to 5/1. Good Luck Monster |
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peter bentley
Jul 7th, 2006 - 9:03 PM |
Re: past results check
I have just moved on a little further with those same 216 races (Sample races were from june 2006 and a few days of july 2006) They produced 81 winners from the top 3 rated and last run within 15days (37.5%) and also 89 winners from Top3rated LTO plus last run within 15 days(41%) Regards Peter B |
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Graham Taylor
Jul 8th, 2006 - 8:11 AM |
Re: past results check
Hi Peter Excellent work please keep it up, is it possible to do this for Lays ? Thanks Graham 
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peter bentley
Jul 9th, 2006 - 11:12 AM |
Re: past results check
Hi Graham. I'm sure that it can be done with lays but it would need a different approach to the past results but lays are not something that I get involved in. regards peter b. |
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peter bentley
Jul 9th, 2006 - 11:38 AM |
Re: past results check
It may just be possible to use the past results figures by using them in conjunction with the betting forecast and dutching 3 of them to make a steady overall profit. It would involve a newspaper forecast, betfair, and the race speed figures. Will keep you posted on this one. Regards peter b. |
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