DYLAN

May 14, 06 - 12:11 PM

USING THE FIGURES

Its some time since I used SPEED FIGURES so I have a couple of questions concerning these figures.It used to be the case that if the LTO figure was achived more than 28 days ago it was deemed to be unreliable.Secondly concerning race distance, it used to be the case that races up to say 12 furlongs were concentrated on......over this the "false pace" of longer races became a problem.Do these ideas still hold true with THESE figures.

DYLAN

May 15th, 2006 - 11:17 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

Having had a good lookround the site for a couple of days I think I will try my old system that I used with TOPSPEED some time ago.Basically its TOPRATED MASTER RATING......LTO SAME RATING.......LTO MUST HAVE BEEN WITHIN 28 DAYS.........MAX. DISTANCE OF RACE 12 FURLONGS.........If anyone has tried this approach before please post as I have not "backtested" the idea against the results on the site and that looks like it might take some time.

VC

May 15th, 2006 - 11:30 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

Hi Dylan

Nice to see you here. You have to go through all the cards yourself to see if any concept will work as there is no backtesting facility here. Other than that it is all ad-hoc trial and error.

DYLAN

May 15th, 2006 - 11:31 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

15/MAY........Had a quick look through todays cards/figures....system produces 7 runners today.All bar one seem to be at the "business end" of the betting market.........so we shall see what today brings.

DYLAN

May 15th, 2006 - 11:35 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

VC......And the same to you.I see a few other familiar names/etc...."from another place" here aswell.Shame there is no "magic button" to instantly check the systems here.....back to the old pen and paper.

VC

May 15th, 2006 - 11:38 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

If it helps any, I have seen no edge in the number of days since LR using the data. In fact I totally ignore it, after extensive testing with now 5 months worth of data. I thought it should be better the more recent the run but I could not proove it that it was better. Any way good luck with your testing.

VC

May 15th, 2006 - 11:41 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

I hope Inform Racing does provide us backtesting in the near future as it will be very easy to test out ideas quickly and efficiently as we can in that 'OTHER PLACE'. It would be nice to hear from others who are also from that 'OTHER PLACE' to make themselves known,

DYLAN

May 15th, 2006 - 12:54 PM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

VC.....The 28 DAY RULE only excluded one selection today so I will leave it in at present.7 selections on the first day is enough to cope with anyway.

DYLAN

May 16th, 2006 - 9:33 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

15/MAY.......Not the best of starts......3rd 12/1, 3rd 11/4, 3rd 4/1, WON 4/5, L 2/1, L 9/2 and a N/R.But I can see a couple of obvious flaws in the methodology and will see if I can overcome them.Has nobody tried this method MASTER = LTO TOP RATED before on this site.???????????

DYLAN

May 16th, 2006 - 11:16 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

NEW RULES.........Had a rethink of the rules and this more logical......TOPRATED MASTER RATING...........LTO SAME RATING..........ALL RUNNERS IN THE RACE MUST HAVE A RATING..........LTO MAXIMUM OF 28 DAYS..............This produced 2 selections yesterday (15/MAY).........3rd 12/1, 3rd 11/4............Today one selection.......2.40 B.......LUCAYOS.

DYLAN

May 17th, 2006 - 11:16 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

Yesterdays result....L 9/4......so thats 0/3 so far.2 today.......8.40 B....RIQUEWIHR and 2.15 Y.....LEVERA.

DYLAN

May 18th, 2006 - 11:17 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

YESTERDAYS RESULTS.....WON 10/11 and L 3/1.......so far thats 1/5 , loss of 3.09 points.Two selections today.......4.25 Y......TRANCE........4.35 S......BUZZIN'BOYZEE.

DYLAN

May 19th, 2006 - 9:28 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

YESTERDAYS RESULTS.......L 14/1 + N/R......so far thats 1/6 , loss of 4.09 points.TODAY 4 selections.....2.35 N..SMILE FOR US......1.45 Y....FEELIN FOXY.....4.25 Y.....THE SNATCHER........5.00 Y.....DAYLAMI STAR.

DYLAN

May 20th, 2006 - 9:04 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

YESTERDAYS RESULTS......L 17/2, L 25/1, 3rd 10/3 and N/R........so thats 1/9...loss of 7.09 POINTS.TODAY one selection..........4.50 T.......GREEN PARK.

DYLAN

May 21st, 2006 - 8:58 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

YESTERDAYS RESULT......WON 10/1.....so far thats 2/10 +2.91 POINTS.TODAYS SELECTIONS........2.10 R...... MINNIE MAGICIAN + 5.15 R.... MACORVILLE

Keith

May 21st, 2006 - 9:30 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

Hi Dylan, interesting angle and good that you are keeping up the postings. Green Park was a very good winner all round yesterday, well done.

Keith

DYLAN

May 22nd, 2006 - 8:58 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

YESTERDAYS RESULTS.......L 13/2 + WON 1/2....so far 3/12 .......+2.41 POINTS.TODAYS SELECTIONS.....2.30 B...CHENEY HILL......5.00 B.....INDIAN EDGE......4.10 R.......FORMAL DECREE......6.40 W....LORD CHARLES........8.10 W.......TERENTIA.

DYLAN

May 23rd, 2006 - 9:31 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

YESTERDAYS RESULTS........WON 15/8, WON 4/1, N/R, 2nd 11/1 and WON 15/8..........so far thats.......6/16 + 9.17 POINTS.TODAYS SELECTIONS.....6.50 Le....HILL SPIRIT......2.10 Li....BRIDGE IT JO......3.10 Li.....DINGAAN.......3.40 Li.....NIKKI BEA.....4.40 Li......CROON.

DYLAN

May 23rd, 2006 - 5:14 PM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

TODAYS RESULTS.......N/R, L 10/3, L 6/1, 2nd 7/1, WON 5/1...........R/T.......7/20 ......+11.17 POINTS.

Ian - Inform Racing

May 23rd, 2006 - 9:25 PM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

Hi Dylan, good little system it seems so far and a nice enough profit. Based on sensible ideas it should prove a long term good thing, hopefully. Are you backing the selections or just paper trading?

Ian

DYLAN

May 24th, 2006 - 8:42 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

IAN......Not backing yet....not enough data.When I have a bit of time I will backcheck the system from the PREVIOUS RESULTS on the site.But as we have discussed this is time consuming.Before I put proper money on system bets I like to have a minimum of 200 results to check.

DYLAN

May 24th, 2006 - 8:45 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

TODAYS SELECTIONS..........4.00 K...ERMINE SEA.......4.20 G.....INCIDENTALLY.

pytelium

May 24th, 2006 - 11:45 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

DYLAN

I admire your caution,every punter should proceed this way,200 results upwards.

DYLAN

May 24th, 2006 - 4:30 PM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

TODAYS RESULTS.....2nd 11/8 and 2nd 7/4.........R/T........7/22......+ 9.17 POINTS.

VC

May 24th, 2006 - 5:28 PM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

Hi Dylan,

I'm sure you are pleased with the results you have thus far. I have checked your system as well as many others as far back as Jan 06 (as I have full data until then) and it seems to me that there is a big difference between Turf and AW and you have to differentiate with different price bands.

BTW the most successful (profitable) price bands for yours are:-

AW 15/2-17/2
Turf 17/2-11/1

All other prices you get the usual churning effect. BYW changing the rules as you did makes it worst than the original one.

However I don't trust the results fully as they are only for a partial season and only a few months. As you know 10 years is the ideal backtesting period.

DYLAN

May 25th, 2006 - 10:54 AM

Re: USING THE FIGURES

VC....Thanks for the info..........saves me backtesting......I will carry on posting and see how we go.

Author	Comment
DYLAN May 14, 06 - 12:11 PM	USING THE FIGURES Its some time since I used SPEED FIGURES so I have a couple of questions concerning these figures.It used to be the case that if the LTO figure was achived more than 28 days ago it was deemed to be unreliable.Secondly concerning race distance, it used to be the case that races up to say 12 furlongs were concentrated on......over this the "false pace" of longer races became a problem.Do these ideas still hold true with THESE figures.
DYLAN May 15th, 2006 - 11:17 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES Having had a good lookround the site for a couple of days I think I will try my old system that I used with TOPSPEED some time ago.Basically its TOPRATED MASTER RATING......LTO SAME RATING.......LTO MUST HAVE BEEN WITHIN 28 DAYS.........MAX. DISTANCE OF RACE 12 FURLONGS.........If anyone has tried this approach before please post as I have not "backtested" the idea against the results on the site and that looks like it might take some time.
VC May 15th, 2006 - 11:30 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES Hi Dylan Nice to see you here. You have to go through all the cards yourself to see if any concept will work as there is no backtesting facility here. Other than that it is all ad-hoc trial and error.
DYLAN May 15th, 2006 - 11:31 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES 15/MAY........Had a quick look through todays cards/figures....system produces 7 runners today.All bar one seem to be at the "business end" of the betting market.........so we shall see what today brings.
DYLAN May 15th, 2006 - 11:35 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES VC......And the same to you.I see a few other familiar names/etc...."from another place" here aswell.Shame there is no "magic button" to instantly check the systems here.....back to the old pen and paper.
VC May 15th, 2006 - 11:38 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES If it helps any, I have seen no edge in the number of days since LR using the data. In fact I totally ignore it, after extensive testing with now 5 months worth of data. I thought it should be better the more recent the run but I could not proove it that it was better. Any way good luck with your testing.
VC May 15th, 2006 - 11:41 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES I hope Inform Racing does provide us backtesting in the near future as it will be very easy to test out ideas quickly and efficiently as we can in that 'OTHER PLACE'. It would be nice to hear from others who are also from that 'OTHER PLACE' to make themselves known,
DYLAN May 15th, 2006 - 12:54 PM	Re: USING THE FIGURES VC.....The 28 DAY RULE only excluded one selection today so I will leave it in at present.7 selections on the first day is enough to cope with anyway.
DYLAN May 16th, 2006 - 9:33 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES 15/MAY.......Not the best of starts......3rd 12/1, 3rd 11/4, 3rd 4/1, WON 4/5, L 2/1, L 9/2 and a N/R.But I can see a couple of obvious flaws in the methodology and will see if I can overcome them.Has nobody tried this method MASTER = LTO TOP RATED before on this site.???????????
DYLAN May 16th, 2006 - 11:16 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES NEW RULES.........Had a rethink of the rules and this more logical......TOPRATED MASTER RATING...........LTO SAME RATING..........ALL RUNNERS IN THE RACE MUST HAVE A RATING..........LTO MAXIMUM OF 28 DAYS..............This produced 2 selections yesterday (15/MAY).........3rd 12/1, 3rd 11/4............Today one selection.......2.40 B.......LUCAYOS.
DYLAN May 17th, 2006 - 11:16 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES Yesterdays result....L 9/4......so thats 0/3 so far.2 today.......8.40 B....RIQUEWIHR and 2.15 Y.....LEVERA.
DYLAN May 18th, 2006 - 11:17 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES YESTERDAYS RESULTS.....WON 10/11 and L 3/1.......so far thats 1/5 , loss of 3.09 points.Two selections today.......4.25 Y......TRANCE........4.35 S......BUZZIN'BOYZEE.
DYLAN May 19th, 2006 - 9:28 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES YESTERDAYS RESULTS.......L 14/1 + N/R......so far thats 1/6 , loss of 4.09 points.TODAY 4 selections.....2.35 N..SMILE FOR US......1.45 Y....FEELIN FOXY.....4.25 Y.....THE SNATCHER........5.00 Y.....DAYLAMI STAR.
DYLAN May 20th, 2006 - 9:04 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES YESTERDAYS RESULTS......L 17/2, L 25/1, 3rd 10/3 and N/R........so thats 1/9...loss of 7.09 POINTS.TODAY one selection..........4.50 T.......GREEN PARK.
DYLAN May 21st, 2006 - 8:58 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES YESTERDAYS RESULT......WON 10/1.....so far thats 2/10 +2.91 POINTS.TODAYS SELECTIONS........2.10 R...... MINNIE MAGICIAN + 5.15 R.... MACORVILLE
Keith May 21st, 2006 - 9:30 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES Hi Dylan, interesting angle and good that you are keeping up the postings. Green Park was a very good winner all round yesterday, well done. Keith
DYLAN May 22nd, 2006 - 8:58 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES YESTERDAYS RESULTS.......L 13/2 + WON 1/2....so far 3/12 .......+2.41 POINTS.TODAYS SELECTIONS.....2.30 B...CHENEY HILL......5.00 B.....INDIAN EDGE......4.10 R.......FORMAL DECREE......6.40 W....LORD CHARLES........8.10 W.......TERENTIA.
DYLAN May 23rd, 2006 - 9:31 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES YESTERDAYS RESULTS........WON 15/8, WON 4/1, N/R, 2nd 11/1 and WON 15/8..........so far thats.......6/16 + 9.17 POINTS.TODAYS SELECTIONS.....6.50 Le....HILL SPIRIT......2.10 Li....BRIDGE IT JO......3.10 Li.....DINGAAN.......3.40 Li.....NIKKI BEA.....4.40 Li......CROON.
DYLAN May 23rd, 2006 - 5:14 PM	Re: USING THE FIGURES TODAYS RESULTS.......N/R, L 10/3, L 6/1, 2nd 7/1, WON 5/1...........R/T.......7/20 ......+11.17 POINTS.
Ian - Inform Racing May 23rd, 2006 - 9:25 PM	Re: USING THE FIGURES Hi Dylan, good little system it seems so far and a nice enough profit. Based on sensible ideas it should prove a long term good thing, hopefully. Are you backing the selections or just paper trading? Ian
DYLAN May 24th, 2006 - 8:42 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES IAN......Not backing yet....not enough data.When I have a bit of time I will backcheck the system from the PREVIOUS RESULTS on the site.But as we have discussed this is time consuming.Before I put proper money on system bets I like to have a minimum of 200 results to check.
DYLAN May 24th, 2006 - 8:45 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES TODAYS SELECTIONS..........4.00 K...ERMINE SEA.......4.20 G.....INCIDENTALLY.
pytelium May 24th, 2006 - 11:45 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES DYLAN I admire your caution,every punter should proceed this way,200 results upwards. Email: 1@1.com
DYLAN May 24th, 2006 - 4:30 PM	Re: USING THE FIGURES TODAYS RESULTS.....2nd 11/8 and 2nd 7/4.........R/T........7/22......+ 9.17 POINTS.
VC May 24th, 2006 - 5:28 PM	Re: USING THE FIGURES Hi Dylan, I'm sure you are pleased with the results you have thus far. I have checked your system as well as many others as far back as Jan 06 (as I have full data until then) and it seems to me that there is a big difference between Turf and AW and you have to differentiate with different price bands. BTW the most successful (profitable) price bands for yours are:- AW 15/2-17/2 Turf 17/2-11/1 All other prices you get the usual churning effect. BYW changing the rules as you did makes it worst than the original one. However I don't trust the results fully as they are only for a partial season and only a few months. As you know 10 years is the ideal backtesting period.
DYLAN May 25th, 2006 - 10:54 AM	Re: USING THE FIGURES VC....Thanks for the info..........saves me backtesting......I will carry on posting and see how we go.